1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9, 2023
Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Annika Ganzeveld, and Mason Clark
June 9, 2023, 7:50 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic
frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1:30pm ET on June 9. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the
June 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in least four areas of the front on June 9. The
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled limited and localized Ukrainian ground attacks in
the Kreminna area.[1] Ukrainian officials stated on June 9 that Ukrainian forces advanced 1.2 kilometers in continued
offensive operations near Bakhmut on June 8.[2] Ukrainian forces continued limited counteroffensive operations in western
Donetsk Oblast near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border on June 9, and made tactical gains in the area.[3] Ukrainian
forces also continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast overnight from June 8 to 9 and during the day on June
9, and a Russian source suggested that Ukrainian forces made incremental gains during the attacks.[4]
Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged on June 9 that the Ukrainian counteroffensive recently
began and noted that Ukrainian forces still have offensive potential, a departure from previous Kremlin
efforts to downplay Ukrainian counteroffensives.[5] Putin stated that fighting has been ongoing for five days and
claimed that Ukrainian forces “did not reach their aims in any area of combat” after committing “strategic
reserves.”[6] Putin claimed that Ukrainian forces suffered significant losses and attributed Russian successes to superior
Russian military equipment and personnel. Putin added that the Russian military command is “realistically” assessing the
current situation and “will proceed from these realities.” Putin’s discussion of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is a notable
departure from his previous distanced approach to discussing battlefield realities and may indicate that the Kremlin is
learning from its previous failed approach to rhetorically downplay successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in 2022. ISW
previously reported on May 2 that the Kremlin reportedly adopted a new information policy directing officials to not
downplay the prospects of a Ukrainian counteroffensive and focus on the Russian fight against Western-provided weapon
systems.[7]
Contrarily, much of the Russian information space prematurely claimed that the Ukrainian
counteroffensive has failed after Russian forces damaged more Western-provided Ukrainian military
equipment on June 9. Battlefield footage shows damaged or destroyed Western-provided infantry fighting vehicles and
tanks in western Zaporizhia Oblast, though the number of Ukrainian vehicles several Russian sources claimed Russian
forces destroyed are highly inflated.[8] Ukrainian forces previously lost military equipment in the same location on June
8.[9] Some prominent Russian ultranationalists claimed that damaged or destroyed Western-provided equipment indicated
that Ukrainian forces failed to launch a large-scale counteroffensive.[10] Russian nationalists are widely celebrating the
58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District), despite Russian forces only executing basic defensive operations
that should not be so unusual as to deserve wide praise. One Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian offensive
activity is in the decline, while a retired Russian general expressed gratitude to elements of the Russian 58th Combined
Arms Army and proclaimed these elements as heroes despite battles continuing along different frontlines.[11] Another
Russian milblogger claimed that a counteroffensive can only last up to 10 to 15 days, implying that Ukrainian
counteroffensive will soon culminate.[12] However, other ultranationalists warned that Ukrainian forces have not yet
carried out the main offensive and noted that Russian forces are reinforcing the second echelon in anticipation of Ukrainian
breakthroughs.[13] A Wagner-affiliated milblogger condemned the excessive enthusiasm around the destruction of
Ukrainian military equipment, noting that Western kit is not “some kind of magic.”[14] Many Russian ultranationalists
appear to be overcorrecting for their previous fears of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.[15]
Ukrainian officials directly acknowledged that Ukrainian forces expect to suffer equipment losses during
counteroffensive operations. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on June 9 that losses are
expected during combat operations and that “military equipment that cannot be destroyed” has yet to be
invented.[16] Malyar added that Russian sources are heavily amplifying footage of Ukrainian equipment losses for
informational effects.[17] The Economist reported that Ukrainian forces are using critical Western equipment in areas of
the frontline where Ukrainian forces have recently suffered equipment losses.[18] ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian
forces appear to have committed only a portion of their available reserves for current counteroffensive operations, and that
