1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, George
Barros, and Fredrick W. Kagan
June 6, 2023, 8:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the
Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-
terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW
will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 3pm ET on June 6. ISW will
cover subsequent reports in the June 7 Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessment.
Damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the
early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delta,
river wetlands, estuaries, and shoreline settlements in Kherson Oblast.
Russian and Ukrainian sources began reporting loud noises resembling explosions
emanating from the KHPP (across the Dnipro River in the Nova Kakhovka area about
55km northeast of Kherson City) between 0200 and 0230 local time on June 6, followed
by reports of rushing water and an overall increase in the water level of the Dnipro.[1]
Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast Administration announced the evacuation of several raions
(districts) of the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast as of 0730 local time and reported
that the Tyahinka, Odradokamianka, Beryslav, Ivanivka, Mykilske, Tokarivka,
Ponyativka, Bilozerka, and Ostriv areas had been partially or completely flooded.[2]
Russian Kherson Oblast occupation officials announced the evacuation of the Nova
Kakhovka, Hola Prystan, and Oleshky raions.[3] Ukrainian officials noted that over 80
settlements are within the flood zone in Kherson Oblast.[4] General Director of
Ukraine’s hydroelectric power plant regulator Ukrhydroenergo Ihor Syrota said that
water is draining from the Kakhovka Reservoir at a rate of 15-20cm an hour, which
Syrota stated means that the reservoir will be entirely dry in the next four days.[5] A
researcher at the Ukrainian Department of Water Bioresources at the Kherson Oblast
Agrarian and Economic University, Yevhen Korzhov, noted that the rate of water
discharge from the dam may lead to flooding as far downstream as Kizomys, about
120km southwest from the KHPP.[6] A Russian milblogger claimed that the water level
in Nova Kakhovka, immediately adjacent to the KHPP, reached as high as 11m.[7]
Various Russian sources additionally highlighted footage showing that several east (left)
bank settlements, including Oleshky, Korsunka, and Dnipryany, are entirely or nearly
entirely underwater.[8]
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Ukrainian officials
stated that the drop in the water level at the Kakhovka Reservoir should not
