1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros,
and Fredrick W. Kagan
June 7, 2023, 8:45 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 3pm ET on June 7. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the June 8 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is
significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherson frontline sector in
southern Ukraine. Near-infrared (NIR) imagery captured at 0400 am ET on June 7 indicates that
the flooding is heavily disrupting Russian prepared defensive positions on the east (left) bank of the
Dnipro River – especially affecting Russian first-line positions in Hola Prystan and Oleshky. Various
sources reported that Oleshky, Hola Prystan, Kozacha Laheri, and Dnipryany are almost entirely
flooded with water levels rising to the height of a one-story buildings in some areas.[1] The Ukrainian
headquarters established to remediate the consequences of the dam’s destruction reported that as of
June 7 29 settlements are partially or fully flooded, 19 of which are located on the Ukrainian-
controlled territory and 10 on Russian occupied territories.[2] Russian sources published footage
indicating that water had begun receding in Nova Kakhovka and had dropped by 30cm.[3] Russian
sources also claimed that water levels decreased by three to four meters in some areas from a high of
10 meters.[4] Water levels in nearby Mykolaiv City reportedly increased by 70cm as of June
7.[5] Flooding will likely worsen and further change the geography in Kherson Oblast over the next 72
hours.
The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern
bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications
that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has
likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in
Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell
Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern
Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their
personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places
Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River
they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage
showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo,
however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will
complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the
