1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros,
and Fredrick W. Kagan
May 30, 2023, 8pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 3pm ET on May 30. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 31 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Russia claimed that Ukraine conducted a series of drone strikes against Moscow on
May 30 as Russia again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed drones. The Russian
Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attacking Moscow with eight drones on the morning of
May 30, and claimed that Russian forces shot down five of the drones and suppressed three drones
with electronic warfare systems.[1] Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyev, however, claimed that
Ukraine launched 32 drones of which some targeted the prestigious neighborhood of Rublyovka in
Moscow Oblast.[2] A Russian independent outlet claimed that the drone strikes predominantly
targeted areas near Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novo-Ogaryovo and other elite
neighborhoods in Moscow Oblast.[3] Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin stated that several buildings in
Moscow suffered minor damage, and Russian sources amplified footage of a minor explosion in the
Novaya Moskva neighborhood.[4] A Russian milblogger claimed that drones flying over Moscow
resembled Ukrainian attack drones.[5] Geolocated footage shows Russian forces shooting down
drones identified as Ukrainian by OSINT accounts in several different areas of Moscow and Moscow
Oblast.[6] Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak denied that Ukraine was directly involved
in the drone strike but forecasted that there could be an increase in such attacks in the future.[7]
Russian forces conducted another Shahed 131 and 136 drone strike against Kyiv overnight on May 29
to May 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 29 of 31 Russian
Shahed 131 and 136 drones that targeted Kyiv.[8] Senior Russian officials claimed that Russian forces
struck high profile targets in Kyiv during recent strikes, likely to appear successful in retaliation for
the recent Belgorod Oblast incursion.[9] Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that
Russian forces struck a Patriot air defense system in recent days.[10] Ukrainian Air Forces
Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat denied Shoigu’s claim, however.[11] Russian milbloggers’ recent
complaints about the perceived lack of Russian escalation in response to the Belgorod border raid and
Moscow drone strikes do not give Russian forces credit for the unprecedented scale of their air
campaign against Kyiv. Many milbloggers, including high-profile voices like former Russian officer
Igor Girkin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin have frequently and recently complained
about the lack of full scale general and economic mobilization in Russia, the only feasible measure
