Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, and
Fredrick W. Kagan
May 28, 2023, 3pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the
Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-
terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW
will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on May 28. ISW will
cover subsequent reports in the May 29 Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessment.
Russian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine
since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. The Ukrainian General Staff
reported that Russian forces launched 59 Shahed-131/136 drones, of which Ukrainian
forces shot down 58.[1] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat
characterized this strike as the largest drone strike since the start of the war and stated
that Russian forces chiefly targeted Kyiv.[2] Zhytomyr Oblast Head Vitaliy Bunechko
reported that Russian drones struck an unspecified infrastructure facility in the
oblast.[3] The Russian allocation of aerial munitions to targeting Kyiv rather than
prioritizing infrastructure or military facilities continues to constrain this limited
Russian air campaign’s ability to meaningfully degrade Ukrainian offensive capabilities
for the upcoming counteroffensive, as ISW has previously assessed.[4]
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the Russian relief
in place operation in Bakhmut may continue past his initial June 1 deadline
and last until June 5. Prigozhin stated on May 28 that Wagner’s withdrawal from the
city may take a few more days because Wagner is not able to transfer all equipment in
good condition by June 1.[5] Prigozhin stated that Wagner forces intend to fully
withdraw from Bakhmut to rear field camps by June 5.[6] The Washington Post
reported on May 28 that Ukrainian personnel in the Bakhmut area have observed
Wagner forces leaving Bakhmut City itself and regular Russian personnel taking
responsibility for Wagner’s previous positions in the city.[7] The Ukrainian personnel
reportedly stated that they cannot confirm that regular Russian forces are replacing
Wagner throughout Bakhmut City, however.[8] Russian sources amplified footage on
May 27 and 28 purporting to show elements of the ”Nevsky” volunteer battalion and the
irregular 1st ”Wolves” Sabotage and Reconnaissance Brigade operating on the flanks in
the Bakhmut area.[9] ISW has previously assessed that the “Wolves” Sabotage and
Reconnaissance Brigade was operating in the Avdiivka area, further suggesting that
Russian forces may be transferring irregular forces and Donetsk People’s Republic
