1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, and Fredrick W. Kagan
May 27, 2023, 6:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1pm ET on May 27. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 28 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to
reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operations decrease in and
around the city. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian offensive operations had
dramatically decreased to two skirmishes in the Bakhmut direction, and Ukrainian Deputy Defense
Minister Hanna Malyar attributed this decrease to the Russian relief-in-place and regrouping of
forces in the area.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 27 that Russian forces conducted
unsuccessful offensive operations west of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut) and in the
direction of Predtechyne (15km southwest of Bakhmut).[2] Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces hold
dominant elevated positions north and south of Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces stopped combat
operations on May 26 and 27 to fulfill other unspecified tasks.[3] Malyar also stated that Ukrainian
forces continue to control positions in the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut City.[4] A prominent
Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are not conducting active operations aimed at
regaining positions in Bakhmut City itself despite the possible continuation of localized Ukrainian
counterattacks northwest and southwest of the city.[5]
Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov stated that Wagner
mercenaries are withdrawing from the city of Bakhmut and are “regrouping to another three
locations.”[6] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin reiterated that Wagner forces continued to
withdraw from Bakhmut city on May 27.[7] Prigozhin’s statements are likely true given the decrease
in Russian offensive capabilities around Bakhmut and Ukrainian statements regarding the situation
in Bakhmut.
The Russian military command may be transferring Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR)
forces to relieve Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut city. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD)
assessed that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces have likely entered Bakhmut city as of May
24 and begun clearing operations.[8] ISW previously observed elements of the 132nd Separate Guard
Motorized Rifle Brigade of the DNR’s 1st Army Corps operating in the Bakhmut direction after
previously fighting in the Avdiivka area.[9] It is unclear at this time if elements of the 132nd Brigade
are operating inside of the city, but DNR Head Denis Pushilin previously raised the DNR flag in
Bakhmut - which likely indicates that the DNR forces are assuming control over
Bakhmut.[10] Pushilin also indicated that DNR elements were clearing the city as of May 23.[11]
