1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2023
Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros,
Karolina Hird, and Fredrick W. Kagan
May 29, 2023, 6:15pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1pm ET on May 29. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 30 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles
and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29 and during the day on May 29. The
Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise
missiles and 38 Shahed-131/136 drones on the night of May 28 to 29 and 11 Iskander-M/K missiles
during the day on May 29.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses
destroyed in all 36 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, 30 Shahed drones, and all 11 Iskander
missiles.[2] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces intercepted all 11 Iskander missiles,
and 40 cruise missiles and Shahed drones that targeted Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast.[3] Ukrainian
sources reported that Ukrainian forces also intercepted missiles and drones near the cities of Lviv,
Mykolaiv, and Odesa, and that Russian forces struck port infrastructure in Odesa City and a military
infrastructure facility in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.[4] Russian forces launched a relatively higher number
of missiles than in recent series of strikes following the largest Russian series of Shahed strikes since
the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on May 28.[5] ISW previously assessed that Russian
forces began a new limited air campaign in recent months to degrade Ukrainian counteroffensive
capabilities, but that the Russian prioritization of targeting Kyiv is likely further limiting the
campaign’s ability to meaningfully constrain potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.[6]
Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to Belarus
on May 28. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense released video on May 28 showing a train with S-
400 systems deploying to an unspecified area in Belarus.[7] Independent Belarusian monitoring
organization The Hajun Project reported that the train with S-400s arrived at the 25th Missile
Arsenal near Stoubtsi (about 60 km southwest of Minsk).[8] It is unclear whether these S-400s will
enter service near Stoubtsi or deploy further to a different location. These systems will likely enter
service with the Belarusian military but under Russian operational control. Russia’s and Belarus’
Joint Regional Air Defense System (established in 2009 and operational in 2016) effectively
subordinates Belarus’ air defense assets to the Russian Western Military District.[9] Belarusian
officials confirmed that Russian-provided S-400 in Belarus became operational and deployed on
combat duty on December 25, 2022.[10] ISW forecasted in 2020 that Russia would deploy S-400s to
