1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26, 2023
Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Mason Clark
May 26, 2023, 6:45pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1:30pm ET on May 26. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 27 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
"Correction: ISW incorrectly reported on May 26 that it had observed footage purporting to show
elements of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 123rd Brigade operating in the Bakhmut direction.
ISW actually observed footage purporting to show elements of the DNR 132nd Separate Guards
Motorized Rifle Brigade operating in the Bakhmut area. ISW has previously observed elements of
the 132nd Brigade operating in the Avdiivka area, suggesting that Russian forces may be
transferring DNR elements to Bakhmut from the Avdiivka area and not from the Siversk area as
ISW assessed in our May 26 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment."
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces continue to
hand over positions in Bakhmut to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and
withdraw from the city. Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 26 that the MoD is
fulfilling its agreement by actively deploying regular Russian units to Wagner-held positions in
Bakhmut city.[1] Prigozhin claimed that Wagner is conducting an organized withdrawal from
Bakhmut and reiterated that the Russian MoD will fully control the city and its surrounding areas by
June 1.[2] A Russian milblogger published footage of Prigozhin visiting Russian rear positions where
Wagner forces are allegedly withdrawing to.[3] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of regular
Russian forces taking up Wagner positions in Bakhmut itself or that Wagner is leaving the city. ISW
has recently observed footage purporting to show elements of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR)
132nd Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade which had previously operated in Avdiivka direction
before appearing in the Bakhmut area.[4]
Ukrainian sources claim that Wagner forces are still present in Bakhmut and that the
tempo of Russian offensive operations around the city continues to decrease. Ukrainian
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that regular Russian units have replaced Wagner
units in Bakhmut’s suburbs, likely referring to areas on the flanks around Bakhmut.[5] Malyar
claimed that Ukrainian forces still control positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city and that
Wagner forces are still present in Bakhmut city itself.[6] Ukrainian sources continue to report that the
tempo of Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut has declined since the claimed Russian
capture of the city.[7] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted
unsuccessful offensive operations near Bakhmut and in the direction of Predtechyne (15km southwest
