1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2023
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Mason Clark
May 25, 2023, 5pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on May 25. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 26 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on May 25 that the Wagner
Group began handing over its positions in Bakhmut to the Russian Ministry of Defense
(MoD) and claimed Wagner will entirely withdraw from the city on June 1. Footage
posted on May 25 shows Prigozhin speaking with Wagner fighters in Bakhmut and announcing that
Wagner began handing over their positions to the Russian MoD and withdrawing to rear areas of the
city.[1] Prigozhin reminded some of the fighters that Wagner will withdraw from the city entirely and
reconstitute, rest, and train following June 1.[2] Prigozhin also claimed that Wagner plans to leave
behind ammunition and provisions for regular Russian troops if necessary and sardonically showed
two Wagner fighters who he claimed he will leave behind for the Russian MoD.[3] ISW has previously
reported that Prigozhin announced that Wagner would hand over its positions to the MoD starting on
May 25 and withdraw from Bakhmut by June 1, but it remains unclear if Wagner will be able to
withdraw the entirety of its contingent by June 1 and if Russian MoD troops will execute a successful
relief in place.[4]
Russia and Belarus signed agreements formally advancing preparations to deploy
Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus as part of a longstanding effort to cement
Russia’s de facto military control over Belarus, though Russia has not yet deployed
nuclear weapons to Belarus and their possible deployment is highly unlikely to presage
any Russian escalation. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister
Viktor Khrenin signed documents on the deployment of Russian non-strategic (tactical) nuclear
weapons to Belarusian territory during a meeting of defense ministers of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Minsk, Belarus on May 25.[5] Shoigu emphasized that Russia would
retain control of the tactical nuclear weapons in the event of their deployment to Belarus and claimed
that Belarusian aircraft are now capable of carrying nuclear weapons.[6] Russian President Vladimir
Putin previously announced on March 25 that Russia would deploy tactical nuclear weapons to
Belarus by July 1, likely to renew tired information operations about the potential for nuclear
escalation over the war in Ukraine.[7] Russia has long fielded nuclear weapons that are able to strike
any target that tactical nuclear weapons launched from Belarus could also hit, and ISW continues to
assess that Putin is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere.[8]
Shoigu also announced that Russian forces will deploy additional military contingents to Belarus to
develop military infrastructure, expand joint combat training, and conduct reconnaissance activities
near the borders of the Union State.[9] The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus
requires both significant military infrastructure and Russian command and control over elements of
