1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
May 21, 2023, 6:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic
frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:30pm ET on May 21. ISW will cover subsequent reports in
the May 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Wagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while
Ukrainian forces are continuing to prioritize counterattacks on Bakhmut’s outskirts. Ukrainian military
officials reported that Ukrainian forces control an “insignificant” part of southwestern Bakhmut City around the T0504
highway — a tacit acknowledgement that Russian forces have secured the rest of western and northwestern Bakhmut, if not
all of it.[1] These officials’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the remaining areas in Bakhmut except
those adjacent to the two highways into the city. Geolocated footage published on May 21 showed Wagner forces raising
Russian and Wagner flags over a residential building in westernmost Bakhmut.[2] The Wagner Group’s likely capture of the
last remaining small area of western Bakhmut does not impact ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks north or south of
Bakhmut, nor does it impact Ukrainian control over the ground lines of communications (GLOCs) around Bakhmut that
exhausted Wagner forces would need to reach in order to conduct further offensive operations. Russian forces will likely
need additional reinforcements to hold Bakhmut City and its flanks at the expense of operations in other directions. ISW
has observed artillery units of the 132nd Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (which was previously observed in the
Avdiivka area) operating in the Bakhmut direction.[3]
Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces lost part of the dominant heights around Bakhmut and noted that
sustained Ukrainian advances could lead to a tactical encirclement of Wagner forces in Bakhmut.[4] The Ukrainian 3rd
Separate Assault Brigade stated on May 20 that the brigade’s counterattacks have expanded the Ukrainian salient in the
Bakhmut area to 1,750 meters wide by 700 meters deep in an unspecified area.[5] Geolocated footage showed the Ukrainian
3rd Separate Assault Brigade striking unspecified Russian forces south of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), and
engaging with the Russian 200th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps (Northern Fleet)
northeast of Bohdanivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut).[6] Russian conventional forces such as the 72nd Separate Motorized
Rifle Brigade are unsuccessfully attempting to regain lost positions and respond to Ukrainian counterattacks on Bakhmut’s
flanks, actions that are consistent with ISW’s assessment that Ukrainian forces regained the tactical initiative around
Bakhmut.[7] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian conventional forces conducted unsuccessful offensive
operations south of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), in the direction of Hryhorivka (about 6km northwest of Bakhmut),
and in the direction of Bila Hora (12km southwest of Bakhmut), and Russian milbloggers also noted the failed Russian
assaults on Bakhmut’s flanks.[8]
ISW previously forecasted that Wagner offensive operations would likely culminate after months of
attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that Wagner will continue fighting beyond Bakhmut at its
current depleted state. ISW assessed that Wagner forces were nearing culmination when they decided to fight though
Bakhmut City. Wagner forces were enabled to continue offensive operations past that culmination point as Russian regular
forces took responsibility for Bakhmut’s flanks, allowing Wagner to concentrate on the urban fight. Wagner forces began
showing signs that they would be unable to pursue offensive operations beyond Bakhmut City from at least late December
2022.[9] A Russian milblogger claimed on May 21 that Wagner forces have not directly attacked Khromove and Ivanivske
— settlements immediately west and southwest of Bakhmut — since capturing Bakhmut.”[10] Commander of the Vostok
Battalion Alexander Khodakovsky stated that, “driven in [their] head by the inertia of the offensive, [Russian forces] did not
want to promptly recognize the depletion of [Russian] offensive potential and did not take care to set up necessary defenses”
in captured areas.[11] Former Russian officer Igor Girkin stated that all Russian forces are now exhausted after decisively
committing to win an unnecessary battle for Bakhmut and claimed that exhausted Wagner mercenaries stopped
immediately at the outskirts of Bakhmut “as they crawled” to the city’s administrative border.[12] Russian regular forces
situated on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks are also unlikely to push west towards Kostyantynivka or north towards
Slovyansk amid Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area any time soon. Russian conventional forces will be even
more unlikely to pursue offensive operations if Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin delivers on his stated intent to
withdraw Wagner personnel from Bakhmut City on May 25.[13] It is currently unclear if Prigozhin will actually withdraw
his forces from Bakhmut, but some milbloggers are speculating that Prigozhin will commit Wagner to a different “critical”
