1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, George Barros,
and Frederick W. Kagan
May 20, 2023, 5:45pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on May 20. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 21 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin declared victory in Bakhmut City on May
20 and announced his intent to withdraw from the city on May 25.[1] Prigozhin claimed
that Wagner Group forces completely captured Bakhmut City on May 20, seizing the last multi-story
apartment building in southwestern Bakhmut near the MiG-17 monument. Prigozhin announced that
Wagner forces will establish defensive positions before transferring responsibility for the city to
Russian conventional forces on May 25. Prigozhin effectively stated that Wagner forces will conduct
an operational pause by resting and restoring combat power at field training camps in unspecified
areas, presumably far from the frontline. ISW has not observed geolocated footage confirming
Prigozhin’s claims as of this publication. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are still
fighting in a small section of southwest Bakhmut as of May 20. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister
Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions near the MiG-17 monument as
of May 20.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has not commented on Prigozhin’s claims as of
this publication.
Prigozhin’s claimed victory over the remaining areas in Bakhmut is purely symbolic
even if true. The last few urban blocks of eastern Bakhmut that Prigozhin claimed that Wagner
Group forces captured are not tactically or operationally significant. Their capture does not grant
Russian forces operationally significant terrain to continue conducting offensive operations or any
particularly strong position from which to defend against possible Ukrainian counterattacks.
Ukrainian forces continue pressuring Bakhmut’s northern and southern
flanks. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that fighting is ongoing on Bakhmut’s northern and
southern flanks in the directions of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), Stupochky (13km southwest of
Bakhmut), and Bila Hora (12km southwest of Bakhmut).[3] Ukrainian forces reported on May 19 that
they have recaptured approximately four square kilometers of additional territory near Bakhmut, and
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue conducting localized attacks near
Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).[4] Prigozhin’s claimed capture of the remaining blocks in
Bakhmut is not strategically significant as it will not allow exhausted Wagner or conventional Russian
forces to establish a meaningful springboard for further offensive operations. Ukrainian ongoing
