1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2023
Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick
W. Kagan
May 18, 2023, 7:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 3pm ET on May 18. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 19 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Correction: ISW corrected an earlier version of this assessment to fix a splice in the
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis paragraph.
Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains
around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18. These operations are a
continuation of the localized counter-attacks Ukrainian forces have been conducting for some days
and do not reflect the start of a major new operation. Multiple Russian milbloggers claimed that
Ukrainian forces drove through the Russian defensive lines south and southwest of Ivanivske (6km
west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) from the northwest.[1]
The milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces retreated from positions north of Sakko i Vantsetti
(15km north of Bakhmut) to positions south of the settlement, but that Ukrainian forces have not yet
entered the settlement. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Russian forces
yielded 570 meters of territory north of Bakhmut, which is consistent with Ukrainian Deputy Defense
Minister Hanna Malyar’s statement that Ukrainian forces had advanced 500 meters north of
Bakhmut and 1,000 meters south of Bakhmut.[2] Ukrainian Eastern Forces Spokesperson Colonel
Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to 1,700 meters in the past day, and the
Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade stated that the brigade’s counterattacks expanded the
Ukrainian salient in the Bakhmut area to 2,000 meters wide by 700 meters deep.[3]
Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized the battlefield initiative
in the Bakhmut area. Cherevaty stated on May 18 that Ukrainian forces regained the battlefield
initiative and are forcing Russian forces to respond to Ukrainian actions, including by transferring
Russian Airborne (VDV) elements to Bakhmut’s flanks to defend against the Ukrainian advances.[4]
Malyar stated that Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the Bakhmut area, very
likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline.[5] ISW recently assessed that the Russian
military command is reallocating military assets to the Bakhmut area in order to augment Wagner’s
offensive capabilities and to gain a tactical victory ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.[6] The
limited nature of Wagner’s offensive operations in Bakhmut compared to the localized Ukrainian
counterattacks underscores the loss of Russian initiative in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that
