1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023
Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, George Barros, and Frederick W.
Kagan
May 17, 2023, 7pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic
frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 3pm ET on May 17. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the
May 18 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Important Note: ISW has reindexed its map layer for reported Ukrainian counteroffensives on May 12,
2023. We removed reported Ukrainian counteroffensive coded before May 1, 2023, in order to delineate
more clearly new Ukrainian territorial gains from gains secured in previous Ukrainian
counteroffensives. ISW retained a few reported Ukrainian counteroffensives polygons from before May
1, 2023, specifically on the Dnipro River Delta south of Kherson Oblast, to preserve context in that
complex area of operations. May 1, 2023, is an arbitrary date and does not mark the beginning or end of
any assessed Ukrainian or Russian effort. ISW has reindexed its map layers before and similarly
removed old reported Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Sumy
oblasts following the conclusion of the Battle of Kyiv in April 2022.
Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut
on May 17. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces are advancing in unspecified
areas on Bakhmut’s flanks.[1] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that
Ukrainian forces advanced up to 500 meters in the Bakhmut direction in the past day and continue to attack Russian
flanks.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) made marginal advances
but acknowledged continued Ukrainian counterattacks against Bakhmut’s flanks near Bohdanivka (5km northwest of
Bakhmut) and Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).[3] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied the MoD’s claim of
territorial gains, however, and criticized the MoD for falsely portraying a retreat as capturing new positions.[4]One
prominent milblogger complained that Russian forces must now react to Ukrainian actions, implying that Russian forces
are losing the initiative in the Bakhmut area despite the limited nature of Ukrainian counterattacks in the area.[5]
Ukrainian officials reported that terrain features constrain Ukrainian offensive operations across the
Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian Southern Forces Joint Press Center Head Nataliya Humenyuk
acknowledged that the width of the Dnipro River hinders Ukrainian territorial advances in Kherson Oblast and called for
the information space to “forget” about Ukrainian offensive activities in the Kherson direction.[6] Ukrainian Security
Services (SBU) Colonel Roman Kostenko stated on May 14 that the Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces back from the
islands close to Kherson City and stated that the islands have poor terrain, no trenches, limited shelter, and that the ground
is always wet.[7]
US officials reported that a Patriot air defense system is operational after Russian Ministry of Defense
(MoD) claimed that Russian missile strikes on Kyiv destroyed the system on May 16. CNN cited three US
officials as stating that a Patriot air defense system is still operational despite the Russian MoD claims that a Kinzhal missile
destroyed it.[8] An unidentified US defense official had previously told CNN that the Patriot system likely suffered damage,
but three officials specified that the system suffered minimal damage that does not impede its operations.[9] Officials did
not specify if Russian missiles or debris caused the damage.
The Kremlin reportedly accused three hypersonic missile scientists of treason. Employees of the Institute of
Theoretical and Applied Mathematics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science published an open letter
on May 15 in defense of three of their scientists — Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk, and Valery Zvegintsev — whom
Russian authorities reportedly arrested in the past year under suspicion of committing “high treason.”[10] The open letter
also noted that these arrests deter the younger generation from pursuing careers in science, which contributes to a decrease
in the quality of scientific research. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that the Kremlin was aware of the open
letter and that Russian security services are involved.[11]
Select Russian strongmen (siloviki) are likely attempting to signal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny
Prigozhin that he must cease his political ambitions in Russia. Prigozhin responded to a media inquiry on May 17
