1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2023
Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, Layne Philipson,
and Mason Clark
May 19, 2023, 7:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 3pm ET on May 19. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their
available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukrainian counterattacks in the
past 24 hours. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on May 19 that Russian
forces concentrated most of their reserves in the Bakhmut direction, which has slowed the rate of
Ukrainian advances.[1] Malyar also stated that Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack on the
northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut and advanced 500 meters on one flank and 1,000 meters
on the other.[2] Some Russian milbloggers celebrated the slowed Ukrainian rate of advance and
claimed that the Ukrainian forces are unable to sustain prolonged localized counterattacks around
Bakhmut.[3] Russian forces on Bakhmut’s flanks likely remain weak, however; Wagner Group
financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to criticize the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd
Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps) on May 19 for retreating from defensive lines southwest of
Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).[4] Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut have notably
likely eliminated the threat of a Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut
and forced Russian troops to allocate scarce military resources to defend against a
limited and localized offensive effort, as Ukrainian command likely intended.
Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine on
the night of May 18 to 19. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russia launched six Kalibr
cruise missiles and 22 Shahed-131/136 drones at Ukraine from the direction of the Black Sea.[5] The
Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 16 drones and three Kalibr
missiles, despite the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)’s claim that Russian forces struck all
intended targets.[6] Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Head Serhii Lysak reported explosions near Kryvyi Rih
following Russian strikes in the area.[7] Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR)
representative Vadym Skibitsky noted that the recent uptick in Russian drone and missile strikes, as
well as artillery strikes along the entire frontline, are meant to disrupt Ukrainian counteroffensive
plans and preparations.[8] ISW previously assessed on May 14 that the recent increase in Russian
strikes on Ukrainian rear areas is likely part of a new air campaign premised on degrading Ukrainian
counteroffensive capabilities in the near term.[9] Skibitsky additionally noted that Russia can only
produce 25 Kalibr cruise missiles, 35 Kh-101s, two Kinzhals, and 5 ballistic 9M723 Iskander-Ms per
