1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2023
Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W.
Kagan
May 16, 2023, 5:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 3pm ET on May 16. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 17 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Important Note: ISW has reindexed its map layer for reported Ukrainian
counteroffensives on May 12, 2023. We removed reported Ukrainian counteroffensive
coded before May 1, 2023, in order to delineate more clearly new Ukrainian territorial
gains from gains secured in previous Ukrainian counteroffensives. ISW retained a
few reported Ukrainian counteroffensives polygons from before May 1, 2023,
specifically on the Dnipro River Delta south of Kherson Oblast, to preserve context in
that complex area of operations. May 1, 2023, is an arbitrary date and does not mark
the beginning or end of any assessed Ukrainian or Russian effort. ISW has reindexed
its map layers before and similarly removed old reported Ukrainian
counteroffensives around Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts following the
conclusion of the Battle of Kyiv in April 2022.
Russian forces have likely committed to reinforcing their tactical offensive effort in the
Bakhmut area despite Ukraine’s apparent focus on limited and localized
counterattacks. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed on May 16 that
Russian forces have strengthened their forces in the Bakhmut area to stabilize the situation, and a
prominent Russian milblogger claimed that four unspecified Russian battalions have deployed to the
flanks around Bakhmut to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs.[1] Russian claims about Russian
reinforcements are consistent with Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar’s May 15
statement that Russian forces are deploying additional airborne (VDV) forces to defend Bakhmut’s
flanks, presumably from other areas of the front.[2] Russian forces have continued to make marginal
gains within Bakhmut itself as of May 16, and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to
claim that Russian forces around Bakhmut are focused on repelling Ukrainian counterattacks.[3] The
Russian MoD claimed on May 16 that elements of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk
People’s Republic Army Corps) repelled 10 Ukrainian counterattacks near Ivanivske (6km west of
Bakhmut).[4]
Ukrainian military officials continue to indicate that Ukraine is pursuing much more limited
operations in the Bakhmut area than Russian forces, who appear to be committed to Bakhmut as a
renewed main effort. Malyar stated on May 16 that while Ukrainian forces have liberated roughly 20
square kilometers of territory in recent days, Russian forces are continuing to make marginal gains
within Bakhmut.[5] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr
