1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W.
Kagan
May 15, 2023, 6:35pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1pm ET on May 16. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 16 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Important Note: ISW has reindexed its map layer for reported Ukrainian
counteroffensives on May 12, 2023. We removed reported Ukrainian counteroffensive
coded before May 1, 2023, in order to delineate more clearly new Ukrainian territorial
gains from gains secured in previous Ukrainian counteroffensives. ISW retained a
few reported Ukrainian counteroffensives polygons from before May 1, 2023,
specifically on the Dnipro River Delta south of Kherson Oblast, to preserve context in
that complex area of operations. May 1, 2023, is an arbitrary date and does not mark
the beginning or end of any assessed Ukrainian or Russian effort. ISW has reindexed
its map layers before and similarly removed old reported Ukrainian
counteroffensives around Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts following the
conclusion of the Battle of Kyiv in April 2022.
Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group
financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to
Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.[1] The Washington Post reported on May 15
that Prigozhin offered the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) information about
Russian troop positions in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut, and two Ukrainian
unnamed officials confirmed that Prigozhin had spoken to GUR officials on numerous occasions.
GUR officials reportedly rejected Prigozhin’s offer because they did not trust Prigozhin, and some
documents indicate that Kyiv suspects that the Kremlin is aware of Prigozhin’s communication with
Ukrainian intelligence. The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin urged Ukrainian officials to
attack Russian forces and revealed the problems that the Russian forces are facing with morale and
ammunition stocks. The Washington Post published an interview with Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky on May 13 about GUR Chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov’s interactions with
Prigozhin and his operatives in Africa in which Zelensky did not confirm Ukraine’s contacts with
Prigozhin.[2]
The reports of Prigozhin’s offers to cooperate with Ukrainian intelligence triggered a
mixed response within Russia. Prigozhin originally responded to Zelensky’s interview on May 14,
