1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2023
Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan
May 14, 2023, 3pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces
daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive
monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on May 14. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the May 15 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Important Note: ISW has reindexed its map layer for reported Ukrainian
counteroffensives on May 12, 2023. We removed reported Ukrainian counteroffensive
coded before May 1, 2023, in order to delineate more clearly new Ukrainian territorial
gains from gains secured in previous Ukrainian counteroffensives. ISW retained a few
reported Ukrainian counteroffensives polygons from before May 1, 2023, specifically
on the Dnipro River Delta south of Kherson Oblast, to preserve context in that complex
area of operations. May 1, 2023, is an arbitrary date and does not mark the beginning
or end of any assessed Ukrainian or Russian effort. ISW has reindexed its map layers
before and similarly removed old reported Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kyiv,
Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts following the conclusion of the Battle of Kyiv
in April 2022.
Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on
the night of May 13 to 14. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces launched an unspecified
number of drones of varying models at Ukraine and that Ukrainian forces destroyed 25, including 18
Shahed 131/136s.
Increasingly regular series of Russian drone and missile strikes are likely a part of a new
Russian air campaign in Ukraine aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct
counteroffensive offensive operations in the near term. Russian forces have conducted at least
10 series of strikes throughout Ukraine, particularly in rear areas, since April 19.
Russian forces have
used significantly fewer high precision missiles in these latest series of strikes in comparison to their
failed campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure from the fall of 2022 through the winter of
2023. ISW previously assessed that Russian forces likely expended a significant proportion of their
precision missiles in the previous air campaign, and the current Russian air campaign may be using far
