1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2023
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and
Frederick W. Kagan
May 12, 2023, 6:15pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated
daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of
Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by
showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 3:00 pm ET on May 12. ISW will cover subsequent
reports in the May 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Important Note: ISW has reindexed its map layer for reported Ukrainian counteroffensives on
May 12, 2023. We removed reported Ukrainian counteroffensive coded before May 1, 2023, in
order to delineate more clearly new Ukrainian territorial gains from gains secured in previous
Ukrainian counteroffensives. ISW retained a few reported Ukrainian counteroffensives
polygons from before May 1, 2023, specifically on the Dnipro River Delta south of Kherson
Oblast, to preserve context in that complex area of operations. May 1, 2023, is an arbitrary date
and does not mark the beginning or end of any assessed Ukrainian or Russian effort. ISW has
reindexed its map layers before and similarly removed old reported Ukrainian
counteroffensives around Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts following the
conclusion of the Battle of Kyiv in April 2022.
Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May
12. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows Russian forces fleeing Ukrainian artillery fire on the southern
bank of the Berkhivske Reservoir, about 4km northwest of Bakhmut.
This footage visually confirms claims made
by a number of Russian milbloggers that Ukrainian forces made gains northwest of Bakhmut in the area between
Bohdanivka and Berkhivka.
One Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the 200th Separate Motorized
Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) lost their positions in the area between Hryhorivka and Dubovo-
Vasylivka (about 6km northwest of Bakhmut).
Several Russian sources warned that Ukrainian forces may be
attempting to encircle the Wagner Group within Bakhmut.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Priogozhin
emphasized that Ukrainian forces are approaching Berkhivka and claimed that Ukraine now holds positions
within 500m of Bakhmut’s northwestern city limits.
Russian milbloggers additionally reported that Ukrainian
troops are counterattacking towards Khromove (3km west of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (6km northwest of
Bakhmut), and Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).
One Russian milblogger claimed that the situation
southwest of Bakhmut near Mayorsk has stabilized following Ukrainian attacks on positions of the 1st Donetsk
People’s Republic Army Corps.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) rejected claims made by other Russian
sources regarding Ukrainian advances and claimed instead that elements of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle
Brigade (Luhansk People’s Republic) and 200th
Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern
Fleet) repelled all attacks in the Berkhivka area ”taking into account the favorable conditions of the Berkhivske
Reservoir.”
Russian milbloggers and other prominent voices in the pro-war information space continue to
respond to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and anxiety. Many
milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian activity around Bakhmut marks the official beginning of the anticipated
spring counteroffensive and speculated about where Ukraine’s main effort will take place.
Several prominent
Russian voices, however, urged caution and restraint in responding to the counteroffensive, suggesting that some
milbloggers are advocating for the application of certain lessons they took from the information space meltdown
during Ukraine’s successful Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives. Some milbloggers warned that reports
