1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023
Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko,
Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan
May 8, 2023, 4:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine
on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 8 that Russian forces
launched 16 missiles at Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts, and that Ukrainian forces
shot down all 35 launched Shahed drones.[1] Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klitschko stated that Ukrainian forces
shot down 36 Russian drones targeting Kyiv out of a 60 total launched against Ukraine,
however.[2] Klitschko did not specify how many total drones Ukrainian forces shot down elsewhere
in Ukraine. Klitschko’s report is more likely accurate as it was posted nearly four hours after the initial
round of Ukrainian reporting on the Shahed strike. The Ukrainian Red Cross stated that one Russian
missile destroyed an entire Red Cross warehouse in Odesa Oblast.[3] Russian milbloggers celebrated
claims that Russian forces intensified strikes against Kyiv, with one milblogger claiming that Russian
forces conducted the largest strike campaign against Kyiv since the start of the war.[4] Russian
sources are likely overcompensating for ineffectiveness of the drone strikes by playing up the size and
scale of the effort.
Senior Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces may be preparing to conduct
counteroffensive operations in May or June. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated
on May 7 that Ukrainian forces are preparing for “new events” in May or June 2023.[5] Ukrainian
Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Havrylov stated in a May 8 interview that the timing and
location of a Ukrainian counteroffensive is not significant because Russian forces and leadership will
panic regardless, but that he would not be surprised if “something,” possibly alluding to Ukrainian
counteroffensive operations, occurred in May or June.[6] The Ukrainian Defense Forces Military
Media Center stated that Russian forces continue to transfer military equipment, ammunition, and
supplies to Ukraine to prepare for a defensive operation against a Ukrainian counteroffensive push.[7]
Russian-occupied Transnistria asked Russia to increase its peacekeeping contingent in
the region, likely to support the Kremlin’s efforts to destabilize Moldova. A Transnistrian
occupation representative to Moscow, Leonid Manakov, asked Russia to increase the number of
peacekeepers in Transnistria due to claims of increasing security and terrorist risks.[8] Manakov
proposed that Transnistria increase the number of peacekeepers by involving the Russians living in
Transnistria in the peacekeeping operations. Manakov’s statement follows reports of Moldovan
prosecutors detaining and cracking down on the members of the pro-Russian ”Shor” party in mid-
