Notes: All years referred to are federal fiscal years, which run from October1 to September30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end.
All costs are in nominal dollars. Numbers in the text, tables, and figure may not add up to totals because of rounding. In this report, “cost” refers to budget
authority,the amount that would need to be appropriated to implementthe Administration’s plans.
JULY | 2023
T
he Congressional Budget Oce updates its
projections of the 10-year costs of U.S. nuclear
forcesevery two years. is report contains
CBO’s projections for the 2023–2032period.
•
If carried out, the plans for nuclear forces
delineated inthe Department of Defense’s (DoD’s)
and the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) scal
year2023budget requests, submitted in April2022,
would cost a total of $756billion over the 2023–
2032period, or an average of just over $75billion a
year, CBO estimates.
•
at total includes $305billion for operation and
sustainment of current and future nuclear forces
and other supporting activities; $247billion for
modernization of strategic and tactical nuclear
delivery systems and the weapons they carry;
$108billion for modernization of facilities and
equipment for the nuclear weapons laboratory
complex and for modernization of command, control,
communications, and early-warning systems; and
$96billion for potential cost growth in excess of
projected budgeted amounts.
•
About two-thirds of those costs would be incurred
by DoD, mainly for ballistic missile submarines and
intercontinental ballistic missiles. DOE’s costs would
be primarily for nuclear weapons laboratories and
supporting activities.
•
CBO’s current estimate of costs for the 2023–
2032period is 19percent (or $122billion) larger than
its 2021estimate of $634billion, which covered the
2021–2030period. Of that amount, $109billion comes
from dierences in CBO’s current and 2021estimates
of budgeted amounts for nuclear forces, and $13billion
comes from dierences in the agency’s estimates of
additional costs based on historical cost growth.
1
•
About 55percent (or $60billion) of that $109billion
increase in budgeted amounts arises because the
10-year period covered by the current estimate begins
and ends two years later than the period covered
by the previousestimate. at $60billion increase
is made up of two components. First, the current
estimate includes two later (and more expensive)
years of development and production in nuclear
modernization programs. When adjusted to remove
the eects of ination, that increased activity accounts
for $34billion of the $60billion dierence. e rest
of the increase comes from ination.
•
About 45percent (or $49billion) of the $109billion
increase in budgeted amounts is projected to occur
from 2023 to 2030—the span of years that overlap
in the two estimates. Two factors account for most
of that increase of about 10percent in the costs
projected for those years. First, the expected costs
of the new intercontinental ballistic missile are
larger, as are the costs to operate and sustain ballistic
missile submarines. Second, DoD has new plans for
modernizing its command, control, communications,
and early-warning systems.
Background
Nuclear weapons have been an important component of
U.S. national security since they were developed during
World War II. During the Cold War, nuclear forces
were central to U.S. defense policy, and a large arsenal
1. CBO’s estimate of cost growth beyond budgeted amounts applies
to the full 10-year period; the dierence between the current and
previous estimates cannot reliably be divided into overlapping and
nonoverlapping years.
Projected Costs of
U.S. Nuclear Forces,
2023 to 2032
