ince the Gaza war broke out, Hezbollah has been walking a fine line between limited responses and full
involvement. The group seems to be pushing the limits a little further every day, signaling its readiness for war
without breaking the tacit rules that it set with Israel after the 2006 Lebanon war. Yet this risky balancing act could
collapse at any point, whether by miscalculation or a deliberate decision to shift strategies.
Thus far, Hezbollah has engaged in several clashes (https://www.foxnews.com/world/israel-responds-hezbollah-
attack-lebanon-deploying-tens-thousands-northern-border) along the border with Israel either directly or via
cells from the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, a Hamas force that has been permitted to operate in south Lebanon for
some time now (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/lebanese-social-media-reactions-rocket-
strikes-israel) . The scope of these clashes has been carefully calibrated to stay within certain limits while still
holding the threat of multifront escalation over Israel’s head. Indeed, Hezbollah has not yet joined the war from a
logistical standpoint: its units have refrained from launching missiles at Israeli infrastructure and civilians, its
special forces have not infiltrated Israel, and its target set is still limited to military elements in the north. At the
same time, however, the group has made sure to maintain an elevated threat level by conducting some type of
significant operation every day since the Hamas attack.
The goal of Hezbollah’s current strategy seems clear: reap the benefits of the Hamas-Israel war without losing the
military presence it has steadily built up in Lebanon since 2006. Although the group believes that opening another
front could temporarily overwhelm Israel per the “united front” strategy designed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC), it also seems to realize that this approach would fail to defeat Israel in the long term—more
likely, it would wind up destroying Hezbollah’s arsenal and weakening its forces. A full-scale war that ends without
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Hanin Ghaddar (/experts/hanin-ghaddar)
