https://crsreports.congress.gov
Updated March 29, 2023
Lebanon
Lebanon, a country of 5.5 million people, faces the worst
economic crisis in its history in the absence of either a
president or a fully functioning cabinet—analysts call this a
“dual executive vacuum.” Lebanon hosts the largest number
of refugees in the world per capita (over 1 million, mostly
Syrians). This has raised social tensions and strained public
services. U.S. policy seeks to counter the influence of Iran
and Hezbollah and bolster Lebanese state institutions while
calling for reforms to counter corruption.
Government & Politics
Lebanon’s population includes Christian, Sunni Muslim,
and Shi’a Muslim communities of roughly comparable size.
In what is referred to as Lebanon’s confessional system,
political posts are divided among the country’s various
religious groups, or “confessions,” in proportions designed
to reflect each group’s share of the population—although
no formal census has been conducted in the country since
1932. The presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian,
the prime minister post for a Sunni Muslim, and the
parliament speakership for a Shi’a Muslim.
Since Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005, Lebanese
politics have been contested between two rival political
coalitions. The March 8 political coalition includes the
Free Patriotic Movement or FPM (Christian), as well as
Hezbollah and the Amal Movement (both Shi’a), and
advocates close ties with Syria and Iran. The March 14
coalition traditionally has included the Future Movement
(Sunni), and the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb (both
Christian), and advocates closer ties with Saudi Arabia,
France, and the United States.
A nationwide protest movement that began in 2019 led civil
society groups to form new parties challenging traditional
elites—resulting in the election of an unprecedented
number of self-described opposition Members of
Parliament (MPs) in 2022. Since 2019, some parties
historically linked to March 14 (Kataeb and the Lebanese
Forces) also began to identify as reform movements. The
Future Movement withdrew from the 2022 elections,
fracturing March 14 further and leaving Sunni candidates to
run as independents, without unified political leadership.
2022 Parliamentary Elections
Lebanon’s May 2022 parliamentary elections did not result
in a clear majority for either March 8 or March 14-linked
groups, contributing to paralysis on issues requiring a
majority vote—including government formation and
presidential elections. The elections automatically triggered
the resignation of the government, placing it in a caretaker
capacity and necessitating the appointment of a new prime
minister and cabinet. Then-President Michel Aoun and
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati did not agree on the
composition of a new cabinet before the expiration of
Aoun’s term in October 2022.
Figure 1. Lebanon
Source: Created by CRS using ESRI and Google Maps.
Presidential Elections
In October 2022, President Aoun’s term expired without the
election of a successor (Lebanon’s president is elected by
the parliament). In the case of a vacancy in the presidency,
Lebanon’s constitution delegates the functions of the
president to the cabinet, but the cabinet has remained in
caretaker status since the 2022 parliamentary elections, with
significantly limited authorities. Numerous rounds of voting
since October 2022 have failed to select a president—due
either to lack of quorum (86 MPs), or to a significant
number of MPs casting blank ballots. In the absence of a
clear March 8 or March 14 majority in the current
parliament, the two coalitions would need to seek some
degree of consensus—and/or solicit support from
independent and opposition MPs—to garner the votes
necessary to elect a president.
Hezbollah
Hezbollah, a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization
(FTO) and Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT),
operates in Lebanon as a militia force, a political party, and
a provider of social services. Iran provides the group with
funding and has used it to threaten Israel. While Israel
withdrew in 2000 from areas of southern Lebanon it had
occupied since 1982, Hezbollah has used the remaining
Israeli presence in disputed areas in the Lebanon-Syria-
Israel triborder region to justify its ongoing conflict with
Israel and its continued existence as a militia alongside the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). In 2006, Hezbollah and
Israel fought a 34-day war in which over 1,200 people,
mostly Lebanese, were killed. Hezbollah has participated in
