As the war rages on between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the role of Iran will remain a central
factor. Tehran is not only Israel’s top regional foe but also the leading provider of military aid
and training for Hamas. Given the centrality of Iran in this latest Middle Eastern war, what is
Tehran’s endgame? Based on Iranian statements since Hamas’ deadly attack on Oct. 7, that
endgame does not seem to be set in stone. As with all stakeholders in this war, Tehran’s
calculations are evolving and shaped by events on the ground in Gaza.
随着以色列和哈马斯在加沙的战争愈演愈烈，伊朗的作用仍将是一个核心因素。德黑兰不仅是
以色列最大的地区敌人，也是哈马斯军事援助和训练的主要提供者。鉴于伊朗在最近的中东战
争中处于中心地位，德黑兰的结局是什么？根据伊朗自10月7日哈马斯发动致命袭击以来的声
明，这一终局似乎并非一成不变。与这场战争中的所有利益相关者一样，德黑兰的计算正在演
变，并受到加沙实地事件的影响。
But two basic realities are clear: Iran has no intention of directly engaging militarily in the war
against Israel or the U.S. should Washington decide to get involved. Doing so would simply
be too risky for the Islamic Republic and its 84-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, whose regime’s scaffolding has been shaky in recent years. Instead, Tehran sees
this moment as a golden opportunity to vindicate its vision for the region based on the
concept of the “Axis of Resistance.” This in turn is a plain repudiation of Abraham Accords
and the idea of Israel’s integration into the fabric of the Middle East.
但两个基本现实是明确的：如果华盛顿决定介入，伊朗无意直接参与对以色列或美国的战争。
