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MEI：以色列-哈马斯战争：冲突情景、美国外交和巩固地区稳定（2023）中英对照（机翻）

ID：68535

大小：0.98 MB

页数：6页

时间：2023-10-22

金币：4

上传者：神经蛙1号
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Israel-Hamas war: Conflict scenarios, US diplomacy, and
shoring up regional stability以色列-哈马斯战争：冲突情
景、美国外交和巩固地区稳定
mei.edu/publications/israel-hamas-war-conflict-scenarios-us-diplomacy-and-shoring-regional-stability
Nine days after the Hamas attack inside Israel, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is massing
troops for a large-scale ground incursion into Gaza. For now, the outlines and endgame of
Israel’s military action are not entirely clear. Meanwhile, escalation is rising along the Israel-
Lebanon border and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is crisscrossing the Middle East
communicating both deterrence and diplomacy.
在哈马斯袭击以色列境内九天后，以色列国防军（IDF）正在集结部队，准备对加沙进行大规
模地面入侵。目前，以色列军事行动的轮廓和结局并不完全清楚。与此同时，以色列 - 黎巴嫩
边境的局势正在升级，美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯正在中东纵横交错，传达威慑和外交。
War scenarios 战争场景
One can describe two scenarios for Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip. The first would hew
closely to its declared intention of destroying Hamas; this would presumably entail a full-
scale invasion and occupation of the entire Gaza Strip and an attempt to fully root out
Hamas. Such a full-scale invasion would not be easy. Hamas, and its backers in Hezbollah
and Iran, certainly must have predicted a large-scale ground incursion in response to the
Hamas attack inside Israel, and at a minimum Hezbollah would have provided Hamas with
what it learned from facing down and beating back an Israeli invasion of south Lebanon in
2006. In other words, Hamas would not be unprepared for such an invasion. And while
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