1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Iran Update, October 17, 2023
Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl
The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional
stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-
making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute
for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in
Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.
Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments
in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We
do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly
affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed
conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Key Takeaways:
1. Palestinian militias continued indirect fire into Israel on October 17, attacking civilian and military targets.
2. The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the West Bank remained
low after peaking on October 13.
3. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh called for mobilization in the West Bank following an
explosion at a hospital in Gaza.
4. CTP-ISW recorded 10 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory on October 17, including seven against
military targets. LH activity on Israel’s northern border creates opportunities for further operations against
Israel.
5. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated what other senior Iranian officials are saying about the Hamas-
Israel war during a speech.
6. Senior IRGC commanders are framing Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation as a prelude to future attacks on
Israel.
