1
Introduction and Executive
Summary
Today’s international system is unlike the one that emerged
in 1991, after the end of the Cold War. The broader Middle
East’s role and relevance in that global context continues
to shift. During the past quarter century, successive United
States administrations have tried to articulate and advance
policies that sought to proactively change dynamics in the
region through diplomacy, military action, and other forms
of engagement, all with limited success and outcomes that
did not measure up to the aspirations and goals set.
The past three administrations have sought to limit America’s engagement after several years of post-9/11 deeper U.S. involvement
in the region, and the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations have all seen limited outcomes from that approach. As the Biden
administration nears the end of its third year in office, this assessment identifies three distinct phases in its overall strategy in the
Middle East:
1. Attempted Rebalance: January 2021 to June 2022
2. Limited Strategic Re-Engagement: July 2022 to April 2023
3. Reaching for a More Proactive Strategy: May 2023 to September 2023
Examining the current landscape and looking ahead to the coming year and beyond, the United States faces three opportunities and
three risks in its overall Middle East strategy.
Opportunities:
1. Regional integration that enhances the broader Middle East’s value in the evolving global landscape and strengthens overall
security and prosperity.
2. Improved security and economic conditions help address the endemic human security challenges that generate problems in
the Middle East and surrounding regions.
3. A clearer pathway toward a “new normal” in America’s relationship with the region.
TREADING CAUTIOUSLY ON SHIFTING SANDS
An Assessment of Biden’s Middle East Policy Approach, 2021-2023
Brian Katulis
September 26, 2023
