1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Iran Update, October 19, 2023
Ashka Jhaveri, Peter Mills, Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani,
Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl
The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that
undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends
that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP)
at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these
updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region,
see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.
Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections
address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy
activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these
activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are
assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva
Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Key Takeaways:
1. Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Palestinian militias
targeted 12 IDF military positions with indirect fire and ATGM in southern Israel. An Israeli
journalist indicated that Hamas is also trying to attack natural gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea.
2. Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank may increase on
October 20. Hamas called for protests in support of the Gaza Strip across all cities and towns in
the West Bank then, as part of Hamas’ effort to expand fighting against Israel to the West Bank.
3. CTP-ISW recorded 13 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory, which is creating opportunities
for further attacks into Israel. LH is allowing Palestinian militias to continue attacks from
southern Lebanon into Israel.
4. Iranian-backed Iraqi militants in Syria conducted three attacks using one-way drones and
rockets against US military positions in Iraq and Syria, marking the second consecutive day of
such attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East.
5. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri held separate
phone calls with his Russian and Qatari counterparts to discuss the Israel-Hamas war.
