NatSec Brief: October 23, 2023
Rebuilding U.S.
Deterrence to Counter
Iran-led Escalation
Jonathan Ruhe
Director of Foreign Policy
The Biden administration’s warnings of “don’t” and its force buildup across the greater Middle East
are highly welcome and necessary, but still far from sufficient, to deter Tehran and its proxies from
dangerously escalating the Israel-Hamas conflict amid an impending Israeli ground operation in
Gaza. By gauging U.S. willingness to respond and seeking to undermine the administration’s
pledges to support Israel and prevent a broader war, the recent spate of regionwide Iran-backed
attacks on U.S. forces shows how much work remains for the United States to overcome its
profound credibility deficit in Tehran’s eyes, maximize the prospects for successful deterrence,
and fully prepare to deny or mitigate any ensuing escalation if deterrence fails. Redressing this
deficit requires immediate and concerted steps by the administration to make explicitly clear it
holds the Iranian regime responsible for escalation, and that it will respond directly against Iranian
targets in any such scenario. These stronger warnings must be paired with additional and more
robust U.S. military preparations across the broader Middle East.
What Happened?
• As Israel prepares for a large-scale Gaza ground operation, Iranian proxies are launching
limited, but repeated, drone and missile strikes around the Middle East in recent days that
have injured or otherwise threatened U.S. forces in Syria, Iraq, and the Red Sea:
» On October 19, a U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer in the Red Sea shot down at least
four missiles and 15 drones fired by Iran’s proxy in Yemen toward southern Israel.
» The United States has not imposed any costs in response to these attacks, beyond
intercepting the missile and drone salvos originating from Yemen.
» On October 19, when asked point blank if the administration sees “any connection
between Yemen, Syria, and Iraq at this point, in terms of Iran directing or some great hand
directing the attacks,” the Pentagon press secretary did not mention Iran, and instead
responded: “I think you have to look at these individually."
• On October 21, the Pentagon announced additional steps to enhance U.S. force posture
across the broader Middle East, including:
» Redirecting the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (CSG), which initially was
deploying to the Eastern Mediterranean, to the area of responsibility for U.S. Central
Command (CENTCOM), which includes the waters surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
The USS Gerald R. Ford CSG currently remains in the Eastern Mediterranean;
» Deploying U.S. air defense assets throughout the region to protect U.S. forces; and
» Increasing preparedness for additional U.S. forces to deploy to the region as needed.
• Amid these events, Tehran has warned publicly that its proxy forces, and potentially its own,
are prepared to intervene and escalate the current Israel-Hamas conflict, especially if Israel’s
current Gaza operation persists and/or expands to include a ground offensive.
