Special Publication, April 27, 2021
Out of Sight, Out of Mind? Understanding the Houthi Threat to Israel
Ari Heistein and Elisha Stoin
On March 7, 2021, Houthi rebels – also known as Ansar Allah – fired a salvo of
missiles at Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Ras Tanura and Dhahran. Despite
uncertainty regarding the motives behind the attack or its success, the very next
day Iran’s IRGC sought to threaten Israel by forging an implicit link between the
Houthi strike and the possibility of an attack on Eilat. This incident is only the
latest evidence of Iran’s perception of the Houthis as a bargaining chip in its
struggle against Israel, relating to the rebel group almost as if they are a missile
unit in the IRGC Air Force. Yet although the Houthi threat to Israel has made
headlines on numerous occasions in recent years, it remains poorly understood.
This paper examines the Houthis’ strategic approach to Israel as well as the
group’s operational capabilities and practices, provides an assessment of the
Houthi threat to Israel, and concludes with five key insights for Israeli decision
makers.
I. Introduction
Israeli security officials may be uneasy when seeking to understand the threat posed by
the Houthis, due to the movement’s opaque nature, its geographic position in a more
distant range for Israel’s intelligence and operational capabilities, and hybrid functions,
which include almost caricature-type militia qualities, advanced military capabilities, and
state-like institutions. Precisely for these reasons, a nuanced understanding of the group
– an increasingly assertive component of the region’s broader strategic environment –
remains essential for informed and effective management of Israel’s national security
priorities.
This paper examines the Houthis’ strategic approach to Israel as well as the group’s
operational capabilities and practices. The authors aim to provide an assessment of the
Houthi threat to Israel, and thereafter offer five key insights for Israeli decision makers.
The ultimate goal of this work is to shed light on the contents of this mysterious “black
box”
to serve Israeli national security decision makers.
The paper’s conclusions are as follows: Despite their rhetoric, the Houthis do not appear
to have taken a decision to strike Israel, and they might never decide to do so. However,
strategic developments in the region, such as intensifying pressure from Iran or a shift in
domestic Yemeni dynamics, could make a Houthi attack on Israel more likely. The
Houthis’ willingness to strike Israel on behalf of Iran remains an open question, although
