September 2006
No. 10
The Hezbollah-Israel War: A Preliminary
Assessment
Prof. Shai Feldman
“Who do you think won the war?,” a Lebanese businessman was asked
by a journalist visiting Beirut in late August. The businessman replied:
“Nobody won. Certainly not Hezbollah, which suffered fatal blows. But
Israel also suffered blows to its prestige in southern Lebanon, and this is
a big problem for the Christians, the Sunnis, and the Druze [in Lebanon],
who now worry even more about Hezbollah.”
1
At this writing, a short time after some 34 days of fighting
between Hezbollah and Israel have ended with the adoption
of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, it seems far too
early to assess the impact of the war that remains unnamed.
Indeed, it seems that a minimal interval of some 12 to 18
months will be required in order to gain some perspective
on this war’s consequences. Hence, suggestions made here
regarding the ramifications of the latest round of Arab-Israeli
violence must be considered preliminary and tentative at best.
Hezbollah
Without excessive effort, Hezbollah was able to project itself as the winner
in its confrontation with Israel. This is understandable: For a movement
the military arm of which numbers only a few thousand, standing its ground
against the armed forces of a regional power – Israel – was in and of itself an
impressive feat. And stand its ground it did: Hezbollah fighters were not only
able to slow the advance of IDF ground forces into Lebanon, tying them down
in pitched battles in villages just north of the border; they managed as well to
continue to launch an average of over 150 Katyusha rockets a day against Israeli
