HUDSON INSTITUTE
HOW THE WAR IN UKRAINE SHAPES IRAN’S STRATEGIC GAINS AND AMBITIONS
1
POLICY MEMO
How the War in Ukraine
Shapes Iran’s Strategic
Gains and Ambitions
CAN KASAPOGLU
Senior Fellow (Non-Resident), Hudson Institute
FEBRUARY 2024
Executive Summary
The Russia-Ukraine War has strengthened military-industrial
ties between Moscow and Tehran. Most concerning is
their deepening collaboration in dual-use technologies
and disruptive weapons systems. Moscow has provided
technical assistance to Tehran in key areas, including its
space program, which can help the Islamic Republic develop
intercontinental ballistic missiles. Moreover, Iran’s interest
in Russian anti-stealth radars and air-superiority fighters
is worrying. Russia’s extensive use of Iranian-supplied
drones has allowed the Iranian defense technological
and industrial base to advance its drone warfare
systems, collect large amounts of operational data,
and improve its loitering munitions designs and
production. A Russian victory in Ukraine would likely
accelerate such cooperation, given the two countries’
geopolitical ambitions, among other factors. So far, the
Islamic Republic has been the winner of the Russia-
Ukraine War.
Below are some key highlights from this policy memo:
• The Russian military’s reliance on using munitions from
Iran to exhaust Ukraine’s combat capabilities has provided
Tehran with unprecedented opportunities.
• In the absence of adequate deterrents in place, Iran has
already become a combat drone supplier to the world’s
second-largest arms exporter, the Russian Federation,
turning the Islamic Republic into a menacing threat to the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on the alliance’s
eastern and southern fronts.
• Open-source intelligence tracks a meaningful rise in the
Russian military’s use of Iran-supplied Shahed baseline
loitering munitions, indicating that the joint Russo-Iranian
drone plant in Tatarstan, Russia, is capable of producing
scores of kamikaze drones annually at low cost. Such
facilities can soon mushroom across the Russian
Federation.
