Photo: ALAIN JOCARD/AFP/Getty Images
The election of Donald Trump for a second term will likely initiate a transformation in
transatlantic relations. The administration’s agenda will mark a massive shift in U.S. post–
Cold War policy toward Europe. Instead of seeking to preserve and maintain the United
States’ preeminent role in Europe, a Trump administration is likely to pull back and largely
leave Europe to Europeans.
But the Trump administration’s objective should not simply be to pull back from Europe but
also to do so in a way that makes Europe stronger. This goal is achievable and does not
require an expensive or exhaustive diplomatic effort. However, it does entail avoiding the
“divide and rule” tactics that the United States has adopted toward Europe since the end of
the Cold War, as well as supporting a common European effort toward defense. That might
go against much of the incoming Trump administration’s DNA, but an abrupt pullback that
leaves Europe in disarray is not in anyone’s interests and will inevitably prompt Europe to
hedge in the U.S.-China rivalry. In short, the Trump administration should want a stronger
Europe, not a weaker one, and that will require some engagement on its part.
Paradigm Shift
Since the end of World War II, the United States has been Europe’s security guarantor.
Initially, the United States took on this role reluctantly as it sought to bring U.S. forces back to
the United States and reduce its defense budget. Yet the kindling of the Cold War and the
fears of Soviet military capabilities and intentions toward Western Europe prompted the
