October 9, 2018
Defense’s 30-Year Aircraft Plan Reveals New Details
Each year, the Department of Defense issues a 30-year
aviation plan, intended to chart the direction of the aviation
enterprise. This plan is typically relatively short on
specifics, in part because 30 years is rather far to foresee in
detail, particularly as that goes 25 years beyond official
defense budget projections.
By contrast, the most recent 30-year aviation plan released
in April 2018 is full of details on specific programs,
including cancellations, life extensions, and new starts.
Some are explicit; others, between the lines. Some of the
highlights follow.
Air Force
The Air Force previously announced plans to retire the air-
superiority F-15C Eagle. But this plan declares an intention
to refresh and extends the life of the F-15E Strike Eagles,
the attack variant.
The Air Force has also decided to extend the life of its F-16
Fighting Falcon fleet. What do the F-15E and the F-16 have
in common? They are both slated to be replaced by the F-35
Lightning II. This new plan may show the Air Force
hedging in case F-35s do not arrive as fast as hoped and
thus has to extend existing airframes to fill the gap. The
target quantity of F-35s has not changed; the Air Force still
expects to buy 1,763. But in case they do not arrive as
quickly as anticipated, the Air Force seeks to update its
older aircraft.
The Air Force’s intention to recapitalize its tanker fleet is
on the record, with a program underway to buy 179 KC-46
Pegasuses. In this plan, the Air Force reveals a conclusion
that the existing program is not enough, announcing an
intention both to buy more KC-46s than anticipated and to
continue to upgrade the existing KC-135s. The previous
intent was to retire KC-135s, but now the Air Force seeks to
make them last longer instead.
The 30-year plan also reveals that the KC-46 is now to
replace the larger KC-10 Extender tanker, a notable change.
When the Air Force began modernizing tankers, it
announced three programs. The first, called KC-X, was a
competition between Airbus and Boeing to provide 179
tankers to replace KC-135s. A follow-on program, called
KC-Y, was mainly intended to buy another 179 of whatever
tanker won KC-X. A third program, called KC-Z, would
have built a new, bigger tanker from scratch to replace the
59 KC-10s. This new plan implies that the KC-Z program
has gone away. KC-46 is an active and growing program,
but it now appears the program’s future is more promising
than originally anticipated.
The A-10 Thunderbolt II attack jet, which was proposed for
retirement by the Air Force four years ago, is not only
going to be retained, but life-extended until the 2030s.
These are 1980s-vintage aircraft, so that means they are
likely to be in service until the age of 50. Once again, this
may be another sign that the Air Force expects to get F-35s
more slowly than originally planned.
Another unexpected initiative is the Air Force’s intent to
replace its handful of C-32 VIP transports, based on the
Boeing 757. As the 757 has been out of production for 14
years, a new aircraft may be expected to meet this
requirement.
Back to the theme of extension: The Air Force was going to
retire seven of its E-3 Sentry airborne command and control
aircraft. Instead, those seven planes are to be kept and
refreshed.
Even the C-130 Hercules, in production since 1956, makes
news in this plan. The Air Force intends to keep its existing
C-130s, but intends not to acquire any more combat
delivery C-130J Super Hercules. While that does not mean
the end of the C-130 line, it is a departure for the Air Force
to no longer be acquiring that aircraft.
Navy
In line with the theme of extending older aircraft, this
document reveals Navy plans to put additional money into
extending the lives of its F-18 Super Hornets. These are yet
more aircraft currently expected to be replaced by F-35.
Concomitantly, the Navy is to retire its oldest F-18s, all of
the A-D model Hornets.
The Navy does plan to buy some C-130s, at a
comparatively low rate.
The Navy’s acquisition goal for the P-8 Poseidon sub
hunter has not changed. It still expects to buy 117. But
language in the 30-year plan says, “Given the recent
geopolitical changes, additional aircraft may be required.”
This is a tentative way to say that the goal is likely to
increase, perhaps in the FY2020 budget submission.
Another new start program that was not in previous service
budgets, but announced in the 30-year plan: to replace the
T-44 fleet the Navy uses for training, based on the civilian
Beechcraft King Air. The Army intends to do something
similar.
It may be no surprise that the Navy intends to extend the
life of its fleet of T-45 Goshawk jet trainers. But the 30-
year plan for the first time announces a program to replace
it, beginning in the 2020s. This may help clear up an
aviation mystery. For the Air Force’s recent T-X jet trainer
competition, two contenders entered existing aircraft, but
Boeing decided to design its entry from scratch. That is
