T
Executive Summary
he United States has made a strategic bet: that India will decisively shape the military balance in Asia. In an era of avowed great power
competition with China, at a time when the U.S. military’s edge over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to erode, this wager
will have an outsized impact on the future trajectory of the region. If India can maintain an advantage over China along its Himalayan
frontier and sustain its dominance in the Indian Ocean, U.S. efforts to deny Beijing a regional sphere of influence are far more likely to succeed—
as is the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific shared by Washington and Delhi. If India fails to realize its military potential, the United States,
caught in between its many global commitments, will struggle to uphold a favorable balance of power.
Today, America’s wager has yet to fully pay off. The trend lines in the India-China military equation are broadly negative. Despite very real
improvements in Delhi’s defense capabilities and a significant advantage conveyed by India’s maritime geography, its longstanding superiority over
China in the Indian Ocean is at risk of slipping away. Beijing has enhanced the capability and capacity of the naval forces it can project into the
Indian Ocean and pursued overseas military facilities to support a more regular People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) presence there. Moreover,
China’s long-range precision strike complex, though constructed primarily with the United States as the intended adversary, extends into the
Indian Ocean—presenting a threat to Delhi’s maritime operations. The state of play along India’s Himalayan frontier is more mixed. Delhi
possesses a clear advantage in localized military strength, but China has made significant infrastructure improvements in Tibet to enhance PLA
mobility to surge troops forward, while folding the entire border with India under a single unified theater command—a major organizational
restructuring that could yield an operational edge.
India has not stood still amid growing military competition with China. Delhi has sought to provide its forces with greater mobility and
operational awareness along the Himalayan frontier, while giving increased focus to maritime domain awareness, logistics, and subsurface
monitoring across the vast expanses of the Indian Ocean. To weather a potential PLA attack, India has placed greater emphasis on infrastructure
hardening; base resiliency; redundant command, control, and communications systems; and improved air defense. At the same time, India has
shifted to a more punitive deterrence posture: Having invested in long-range strike capabilities suitable to both land and maritime warfare, it
conducted a recent trial of a new anti-satellite weapon. It has also refined an operational concept for the Himalayan theater that aims to take the
battle into China’s territory. Lastly, Delhi has begun taking steps to promote greater military jointness through new forms of defense organization.
Positioning India to Prevail in 2030
Delhi’s ongoing efforts, though promising, will not fundamentally change the current trend lines in the India-China military equation. This
report advances a set of recommendations that collectively aim to ensure select areas of Indian military advantage and stress PLA vulnerabilities.
These recommendations are rooted in an assessment of policy and budgetary choices that might become viable for India in the decade ending in
2030.
Whether India can compete militarily with China will hinge on its operational concepts. The first advanced by this report is a sharper
version of India’s existing operational concept for the Himalayan theater, while the second is more novel and tailored to an increasingly
challenging maritime environment.
OCTOBER 23, 20 19
Imbalance of Power
India’s Military Choices in an Era of Strategic Competition with China
By Daniel Kliman, Iskander Rehman, Kristine Lee and Joshua Fitt
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Executive Summary
Introduction
The India-China Military
Equation
Assessing India’s
Evolving Military
Approach to China
Optimizing U.S.-India
Defense Cooperation
for an Era of Strategic
Competition
Conclusion
EVENTS FOLLOW SUPPORT
