1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, George Barros, and Frederick
W. Kagan
July 15, 7:25 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces are likely emerging from their operational pause as of July 15. Russian
forces carried out a series of limited ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk, southeast of Siversk, along
the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, southeast of Bakhmut, and southwest of Donetsk City.
These
assaults may indicate that Russian forces are attempting to resume their offensive operations in
Donbas. The assaults are still small-scale and were largely unsuccessful. If the operational pause is truly
over, the Russians will likely continue and expand such assaults in the coming 72 hours. The Russians
might instead alternate briefer pauses with strengthening attacks over a number of days before moving
into a full-scale offensive operation. A 10-day-long operational pause is insufficient to fully regenerate
Russian forces for large-scale offensive operations. The Russian military seems to feel continuous
pressure to resume and continue offensive operations before it can reasonably have rebuilt sufficient
combat power to achieve decisive effects at a reasonable cost to itself, however. The resuming Russian
offensive may therefore fluctuate or even stall for some time.
Ukrainian HIMARS strikes have likely killed or wounded four Russian 106th Airborne
Division deputy commanders. Russian news outlets reported the deaths of 106th Division’s deputy
commanders Colonel Sergey Kuzminov, Colonel Andrey Vasiliev, and Colonel Maxim Kudrin,
seemingly confirming Ukrainian claims that HIMARS strikes on Shaktarsk on July 9 killed or wounded
a significant portion of the 106th's leadership.
Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications claimed
on July 12 that one unspecified 106th Airborne Division deputy commander remains in critical
condition.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces are likely emerging from their operational pause, launching ground
assaults north of Slovyansk, southeast of Siversk, around Bakhmut, and southwest
of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces continued to defend occupied positions in the Kharkiv City
direction to prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing toward the Russian border
in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Russian forces continued their systematic attacks on civilian infrastructure
targeting residential infrastructure, recreational facilities, and educational
institutions in Mykolaiv City on July 15.
• Chelyabinsk Oblast officials announced the completion of a volunteer battalion on
July 15.
• Russian occupation authorities continued to institute new societal control
measures in occupied territories.
