1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W.
Kagan
July 17, 5:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces are continuing a measured return from the operational pause and
conducted limited ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on July 17. As ISW has previously noted,
the end of the Russian operational pause is unlikely to create a massive new wave of ground assaults
across multiple axes of advance despite Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s public order for
exactly that. Russian troops are prioritizing advances around Siversk and Bakhmut while maintaining
defensive positions north of Kharkiv City and along the Southern Axis. Russian forces continued to set
conditions for resumed offensives toward Slovyansk, shelled settlements along the Izyum-Slovyansk
salient, and otherwise conducted artillery, missile, and air strikes throughout Ukraine. The Russian
Ministry of Defense notably did not claim any new territorial gains on July 17. ISW continues to forecast
that the end of the operational pause will be characterized by a fluctuating and staggered resumption
of ground offensives.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces continued a measured return from the operational pause and did
not make any confirmed territorial gains on July 17.
• Russian forces continued limited ground assaults around Siversk, Bakhmut, and
Donetsk City and otherwise fired at civilian and military infrastructure throughout
the Donbas.
• Russian forces focused on defensive operations north of Kharkiv City and along
the Southern Axis.
• The Kremlin may be setting long-term conditions for force generation efforts in
anticipation of protracted hostilities in Ukraine.
• Russian occupation authorities are likely using the threat of partisan activities to
justify harsher societal controls in occupied areas.
