Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, George Barros and Grace Mappes
June 27, 4:45pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated
daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
A Russian missile strike hit a shopping mall in a residential area of Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast
on June 27, likely killing many civilians.
Ukrainian sources stated that over 1,000 civilians were inside
the mall at the time of the strike, and officials are still clarifying the number of casualties.
The Kremenchuk
strike follows a wider intensification of Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian
targets in recent days. Advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs Vadym Denisenko stated on June 26
that Russian forces have begun a campaign of massive and largely indiscriminate missile strikes against
Ukrainian cities, which echoes statements made by an unnamed US defense official on June 27 that Russian
forces are increasingly relying on artillery and missile strikes to advance operations in Ukraine.
As Russian
forces continue to burn through their supply of high-precision weaponry, such attacks that cause substantial
collateral civilian damage will likely escalate.
Russian military authorities continue to seek ways to replenish their increasingly exhausted
force capabilities without announcing general mobilization. An unnamed senior US defense official
stated on June 27 that Russian forces are likely running low on senior military leaders and are relying more
heavily on retired officers and reserves to replace officer casualties.
The UK Ministry of Defense similarly
reported that Russian forces will likely rely heavily on reserve echelons, namely the Combat Army Reserve
(BARS) and Human Mobilization Resource, in order to galvanize volunteer support and fill out the third battalion
tactical group (BTG) within regular (and depleted) brigades.
As ISW has previously assessed, such reserves are
unlikely to provide Russian forces with meaningful regeneration of force capabilities.
Key Takeaways:
• Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in
strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.
• Russian forces made incremental advances southwest of Lysychansk near the T1302
Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway but have not entirely severed Ukrainian lines of
communication into Bakhmut.
• Russian forces made measured advances during offensive operations to the east of
Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian offensives north of Slovyansk.
• Russian forces made limited and localized attacks along contested frontlines around
Kharkiv City but did not make any advances on June 27.
• Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Southern Axis continue to force Russian troops to
prioritize defensive operations along the line of contact.
• Russian occupation authorities are taking steps to strengthen economic control of
occupied territories and force Ukrainian civilians to switch to the ruble.
