1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2023
Riley Bailey, George Barros, Grace Mappes, Kateryna
Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W.
Kagan
March 22, 8 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW
produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map
archive monthly.
Russian forces conducted a limited drone and missile strike campaign in Ukraine
overnight on March 21-22, indicating that Russian forces continue struggling with
precision missile shortages. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted
21 drone strikes targeting residential and infrastructure areas in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhia, and Odesa
oblasts, and Ukrainian forces shot down 16 of the drones.
1
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces
struck two residential high-rise buildings in Zaporizhzhia City, killing at least one civilian and injuring
33.
2
Russian forces conducted more intensive and wider-ranging strikes during the fall 2022 air and
missile campaign, suggesting that Russian forces may now be rationing their use of high-precision
munitions for these strike campaigns or may simply lack the necessary munitions to sustain strike
campaigns at their earlier pace and intensity. Head of the Ukrainian Joint Coordination Press Center
of the Southern Forces Nataliya Humenyuk stated that the Russian missile strike threat remains high
but that Russian forces would likely only conduct a limited campaign.
3
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that the Russian Ministry of
Defense (MoD) intends to increase the size of Russia’s air defense forces at a Russian
MoD collegium on March 22. Shoigu stated that one of the Russian Aerospace Forces’ (VKS)
development priorities is to generate more air defense units with advanced air defense systems.
4
He
noted that in 2023 Russian forces plan to form a new air defense division and brigade, form a special
purpose air defense missile brigade, form a new anti-aircraft missile regiment with more advanced S-
350 systems, form a military transport aviation regiment, and complete the modernization of Moscow
City’s air defense systems.
5
Shoigu also commented on Russian combat experience in Ukraine, stating
that Russian pilots conducted over 140,000 combat sorties since February 24, 2022, and that 90
percent of operational-tactical and army aviation, 60 percent of strategic long-range aviation, and 85
percent of UAV operators have combat experience.
6
The Russian military is unlikely to generate such forces within several years, let alone by the end of
2023. Russia’s defense industrial base has historically experienced multi-year delays in developing
advanced air defense systems, even before the strict sanctions and exacerbated resource constraints
resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Current Russian air defense brigades and regiments
received their S-400 systems up to several years behind schedule.
7
The Russian military had only
fielded the S-500 system, which was reportedly supposed to enter production in 2015, in one Russian
