Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Grace Mappes, Nicole
Wolkov and Frederick W. Kagan
March 23, 9:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW
produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map
archive monthly.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out fear of completely losing his mercenary
force in Bakhmut. Prigozhin emphasized his concerns about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive
in eastern Ukraine during a 23-minute interview on March 23.
1
Prigozhin claimed that Ukraine has
200,000 reserves concentrating to attack along the entire eastern frontline, into Belgorod Oblast, and
in Bakhmut. Prigozhin also claimed that the Ukrainians currently have 80,000 troops in Bakhmut,
Slovyansk, and Kostyantynivka to counterattack Bakhmut – a claim that former Russian officer Igor
Girkin observed was dubious.
2
Prigozhin‘s exaggerated statements about the imminent threat to
Russian forces are likely an attempt to secure more supplies and reinforcements from the Russian MoD
to save his forces in Bakhmut. Prigozhin made several positive statements about the Russian MoD, even
acknowledging that Russian MoD forces are fighting alongside Chechen units in Bilohorivka, Luhansk
Oblast. Prigozhin also surprisingly promoted both Russian MoD-controlled volunteer recruitment
efforts and recruitment into Wagner, instead of only advertising service with Wagner formations as he
has usually done. Prigozhin expressed some generalized criticism of the Russian military bureaucracy
– namely the defense industrial base (DIB) - but such criticisms echo the current state propaganda
narrative. Prigozhin had been an avid critic of the Russian military command, and the softening of his
rhetoric may indicate that he may be attempting to partially appease the Russian MoD to gain supplies
or reinforcements for Wagner forces in Bakhmut.
Prigozhin denied the Kremlin’s claims that Russia is fighting NATO in Ukraine and
questioned whether there are actually Nazis in Ukraine as the Kremlin constantly claims.
Prigozhin stated that Russia is fighting “exclusively with Ukrainians” who are equipped with NATO-
provided equipment and some “russophobic” mercenaries who voluntarily support Ukraine - but not
NATO itself.
3
Prigozhin also noted that Russian officials most likely knew that NATO would offer
Ukraine military aid, because “it is ridiculous to think that when [Russia] decided to conduct this special
military operation it did not account for NATO’s help to Ukraine.” Prigozhin noted that he is unsure
about the “denazification” objectives in Ukraine, because he does not know if there are “Nazis” in
Ukraine. Prigozhin also noted that Russia will ”demilitarize” Ukraine only when all of the Ukrainian
military is destroyed, claiming that this effort is ongoing, but that it is unclear if it will be successful.
Prigozhin stated that Russia can avoid an exhausting protracted war by deciding now which borders it
wants to capture. Prigozhin also called on the Russian military and media to stop underestimating
Ukrainian forces and engaging in internal conflicts. Prigozhin effectively rejected the Kremlin’s pre-war
and post-war claims that Russia needed to defend itself against a NATO threat in Ukraine and
