The Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2023
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, Kateryna
Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
March 19, 5 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the
Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-
terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW
will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, March 19. This
report discusses growing Russian concern about a prospective Ukrainian
counteroffensive near Bakhmut or in southern Ukraine, and Russian efforts
to prepare mitigations for these claimed efforts. The tempo of Russian
offensive operations across the theater has slowed in recent weeks,
suggesting that the Russian spring offensive in Donbas may be nearing
culmination. Ukrainian officials have indicated that significant Russian
losses near Vuhledar are severely inhibiting Russian forces’ capacity to
conduct further offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast. Russian President
Vladimir Putin used his first visit to recently-occupied Ukraine to portray
himself as an involved wartime leader amid exaggerated responses in the
Russian nationalist information space over fears of a possible future
Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces likely conducted a localized counterattack southwest of
Bakhmut amid growing Russian discussion about a potential Ukrainian
counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area. Geolocated footage published on March 19
indicates that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack southwest of
Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and pushed Russian forces further away from the
T0504 highway in the area.
1
Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel
Serhiy Cherevaty reported that Russian forces conducted 25 attacks in the Bakhmut area
on March 19, but Russian forces likely only secured marginal gains.
2
Russian sources
amplified footage on March 18 alleging to show a column of Ukrainian armored vehicles
along the T0504 southwest of Kostyantynivka (22km southwest of Bakhmut) and
speculated that Ukrainian forces are preparing to launch counteroffensive operations
southwest of Bakhmut.
3
A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces
are currently capable of intensifying counterattacks to stabilize the front line around
Bakhmut.
4
The growing Russian discussions about an imminent Ukrainian
counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area suggest that Russian sources are increasingly
uncertain about the Russian military’s ability to maintain the initiative around Bakhmut.
Statements made by Ukrainian military officials on the pace and prospects
of current Russian offensive operations may suggest that the overall Russian
