1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2023
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan
March 14, 5:45pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic
frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Prominent Russian milbloggers are reamplifying a longstanding Russian information operation that seeks
to weaponize religion to discredit Ukraine. The Ukrainian Ministry of Culture issued a decision on March 9
stipulating that the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra Reserve will terminate its lease agreement with the Kremlin-affiliated Ukrainian
Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP), meaning that the UOC MP will need to vacate the premises of the lower
Lavra by March 29.[1] The Ukrainian government did not renew the UOC MP’s expired lease on the upper Lavra and allowed
the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) to hold Christmas services at the Lavra on January 7, as ISW previously
reported.[2] Two prominent milbloggers responded on March 14 to the latest decision requiring the UOC MP to vacate the
lower Lavra by March 29 and exploited the story to accuse Kyiv of repressing freedom of religion within Ukraine.[3] Former
Russian officer and convicted war criminal Igor Girkin claimed with no evidence that Kyiv will likely stage a military takeover
of the Lavra because Ukrainian authorities are bent on “bloodily pitting the Russians on both sides of an artificial border”
against one another.[4] Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) commander and former DNR Security Minister Alexander
Khodakovsky accused Ukraine of causing a “church frenzy” to divide the UOC MP and OCU dioceses and encouraged
Ukrainian authorities to see past Ukrainian and Russian distinctions and exercise “restraint and Christian
patience.”[5] Khodakovsky’s comment is remarkable because it is Russia’s rejection of the validity of seeing any distinctions
between Russians and Ukrainians that was one of the justifications for the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine in the first
place.
Both Girkin’s and Khodakovsky’s renewed exploitations of the Lavra issue are based on a misrepresentation of events and
disingenuously seek to portray Kyiv as attacking religious liberty in Ukraine. The UOC MP is the Kremlin-controlled Russian
Orthodox Church’s subordinate element in Ukraine and provided material support for Russia’s illegal invasion of Crimea
and Eastern Ukraine in 2014.[6] The UOC MP is not an independent religious organization but rather an extension of the
Russian state and an instrument of Russian hybrid warfare.[7] By misrepresenting the Ukrainian government’s decision to
reduce the Kremlin-controlled UOC MP’s influence in Ukraine, Russian milbloggers are amplifying a known information
operation attempting to delegitimize the Ukrainian state and turn international public opinion against Ukraine.
Russian authorities continue measures to mobilize the struggling Russian defense industrial base (DIB)
for a protracted war effort, including measures that will force the Kremlin to choose between having
skilled workers in the DIB and skilled military personnel fighting in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin
claimed during a March 14 visit to an aviation production plant in Ulan-Ude, Buryatia, that the DIB suffers from a lack of
adequately trained personnel and announced a series of reforms to attract more specialists to work at military production
plants, including the reallocation of federal assets to housing and increasing pay.[8] Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu
visited Tactical Missile Corporation in Moscow Oblast and called on the plant to double production even after announcing
that the plant had met the requirements of the state defense order.[9] Putin also announced that the Russian Ministry of
Industry and Trade has prepared a list of unspecified specialties to defer from military service, which may suggest that the
Kremlin is prioritizing using skilled workers in the production of Russian weapons over having skilled soldiers fight in
Russia’s military.[10] Russian news outlets Interfax and RBK, the latter citing a Russian federal official, reported that the
Russian Ministry of Finance is also considering issuing war bonds.[11] The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD)
assessed that Putin’s March 3 presidential decree on government oversight of the DIB sets conditions for the Russian
Ministry of Trade and Industry to bypass DIB managers at enterprises that fail to meet Russia’s production
standards.[12] The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service reported that Russian defense enterprises significantly decreased
their hiring standards and now accept workers without experience and with histories of drug use, criminal records, and
bankruptcy.[13] ISW has previously reported on Russia’s struggle to rejuvenate its DIB amid labor shortages and Western
sanctions and its ensuing lack of success in this endeavor.[14]
Two Russian Su-27 aircraft downed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea in international
airspace. US General James B. Hecker stated that two Russian aircraft hit the drone nearly causing both aircraft to crash
and resulting in the loss of the drone.[15] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that the drone crashed due to
“sharp maneuvering.”[16] The incident will not cause an escalation to direct conflict between Russia and the US. Russian
forces have used coercive signaling against US and allied flights and naval vessels for decades in multiple theaters without
