1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2023
Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace
Mappes, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan
March 13, 7:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW
produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map
archive monthly.
A member of the Kremlin-affiliated Valdai Discussion Club accused Wagner Group
financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of pursuing political objectives in Russia that are
endangering Wagner forces in Bakhmut. Russian political scientist Aleksey Mukhin—who
contributes to the Valdai Discussion Club and Russian state media—commented on Prigozhin’s March
11 sarcastic announcement that he will be running in Ukrainian presidential election in 2024.
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Mukhin
stated on his Telegram channel that the Russian public began to interpret Prigozhin’s statement as an
announcement that he will run for the Russian presidential elections, which are also scheduled for
2024. Mukhin rhetorically asked if Prigozhin notified Russian President Vladimir Putin about his
“presidential ambitions.” Mukhin argued that Prigozhin’s presentation of himself as the “commander”
of the Wagner private military company (PMC) “directly affects the planning and management of the
assault squads’ combat operations.” Mukhin also sarcastically stated that Prigozhin is a “prospective
politician” who searches for scapegoats to blame for Wagner’s high losses among personnel. Mukhin
observed that everyone knows that the Russian government pays for Prigozhin’s forces and their
ammunition and stated that Prigozhin’s failure to acknowledge the support from conventional Russian
forces alienated him from other Russian battlefield commanders. Mukhin concluded that Prigozhin
“has placed the Wagner fighters in danger of encirclement during the expected Ukrainian
counterattack” as a result of his actions. Mukhin stated that Prigozhin now is demanding that Russian
conventional forces “cover his flanks,” and that Russian forces may need to put aside their distaste for
Prigozhin to prevent further Wagner losses in Bakhmut.
Mukhin’s attack on Prigozhin is in line with ISW’s March 12 assessment that the Russian
Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be deliberately expending Wagner forces in Bakhmut in
part to derail Prigozhin’s political aspirations.
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Mukhin’s accusations also support ISW’s
assessment that the Kremlin and Russian MoD may be attempting to blame Prigozhin for the slowed
pace of advance in Bakhmut and for high casualties among Wagner mercenaries. Mukhin’s statement
showcases how the Kremlin may be perceiving Prigozhin’s controversial statements and his threat to
Putin’s regime. ISW previously observed harsh criticism towards Prigozhin from milbloggers such as
disgraced Russian officer Igor Girkin, but Mukhin’s statement is notable because of his existing
affiliation with the Kremlin institution that is the Valdai Club.
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Prigozhin likely indirectly responded to Mukhin’s accusations on March 12 but has not
scaled back his hostile rhetoric towards the Russian MoD. Prigozhin responded within an
hour of Mukhin’s statement, stating that the situation in Bakhmut remains “really hard” and that his
