Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023
Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, George Barros,
Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan
March 9, 8:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW
produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map
archive monthly.
Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on
March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian state propaganda objectives. Ukrainian
military officials reported that Russian forces targeted Ukrainian critical infrastructure with 84
different missiles including 28 Kh-101/Kh-555 and 20 Kalibr cruise missiles, six Kh-22 anti-ship
missiles, six Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, two Kh-31P supersonic anti-ship missiles, six Kh-59
guided missiles, and at least 13 S-300 air-defense missiles.
Russian forces also attacked Ukraine with
eight Iranian-made Shahed–136 drones, which Ukrainian officials noted likely sought to distract
Ukrainian air defense systems before the missile strikes.
Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down 34 of
the 48 Kalibr and Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and four Shahed-136 drones.
Ukrainian officials also
noted that all eight of the Kh-31P and Kh-59 missiles did not reach their intended targets. Ukrainian
Air Force Spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat noted that Ukrainian forces did not have the capacity to shoot down
some of the Russian missiles—likely referring to Kinzhal and S-300 missiles.
The Russian Ministry of
Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces conducted “high precision long range air, sea, and land-
based missile strikes” targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure, military-industrial complexes, and
energy infrastructure supporting the Ukrainian military as retaliation for the alleged incursion into
Bryansk Oblast on March 2.
Ukrainian officials, Russian milbloggers, and social media footage indicate that Russian forces
overwhelmingly targeted energy infrastructure across Ukraine. The head of the Ukrainian state
electricity transmission operator Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrynskyi, stated that Russian missile strikes
once again targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, but yet again failed to achieve Russia’s ongoing
goal of destroying Ukrainian power supplies.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that
Russian strikes hit eight energy sites resulting in power outages in some areas of the country.
The Kyiv
City Military Administration reported that preliminary data showed that Russian forces may have used
Kinzhal missiles to strike unspecified infrastructure, while social media footage showed smoke rising
from one of Kyiv’s thermo-electric power plants.
Russian milbloggers amplified footage and reports of
the aftermath of strikes on energy facilities in the cities of Kyiv, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kirovohrad,
and Kharkiv among others.
ISW continues to assess that these missile strikes will not undermine
Ukraine’s will or improve Russia’s positions on the frontlines.
The Kremlin likely deliberately launched missiles that Ukrainian air defenses cannot intercept to
achieve results within the Russian information space despite the dwindling supplies of such missiles.
Ihnat noted that Russia has up to 50 Kinzhal missiles and had used some missiles that it cannot replace.
Russian President Vladimir Putin likely used these scarce missiles in fruitless attacks to appease the
