Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2023
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan
March 3, 7pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated
daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of
Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by
showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Ukrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts
of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been fighting to take Bakhmut, a city with a pre-war population of roughly
70,000 people, since roughly May 2022 and have suffered devastating casualties in the process. Geolocated
footage posted on March 3 confirms that Ukrainian troops have destroyed two critical bridges in the Bakhmut
area—one across the Bakhmutivka River in northeastern Bakhmut and one along the Khromove-Bakhmut route
just west of Bakhmut.
The preemptive destruction of bridges is likely an indicator that Ukrainian troops may
seek to inhibit Russian movement in eastern Bakhmut and limit potential westward Russian egress routes out of
Bakhmut. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Rodnyanskyi previously stated on February 28 that
Ukrainian forces could choose to pull back from positions in Bakhmut as needed.
Rodnyanskyi also noted that
Ukraine has fortified the area west of Bakhmut such that even if Ukrainian troops begin to withdraw, Russian
forces would not necessarily be able to rapidly take the entire city.
If the Ukrainian military command deems it
necessary to withdraw from Bakhmut it will likely conduct a limited and controlled withdrawal from particularly
difficult sectors of eastern Bakhmut judging from Ukrainian statements and reported Ukrainian actions. ISW
will continue to monitor the situation and offer updated assessments of the implications of possible Russian
courses of action if and when Ukrainian forces begin to pull back.
Russian officials continued to release limited information about the March 2 incursion in
Bryansk Oblast but failed to provide clarity about what actually transpired. Russian State Duma
Deputy Alexander Khinshtein claimed on March 2 that a Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) vehicle ran over
a mine while clearing the area near Sushany, Bryansk Oblast, and four personnel sustained minor injuries.
Russian authorities previously claimed that the perpetrators mined the area before leaving.
The Russian Federal
Security Service (FSB) released edited footage of the purported aftermath on March 3 that shows two civilian
cars with substantial damage from bullet holes and deceased drivers as well as man-portable military equipment
and mines, all supposedly in the Bryansk Oblast border area.
The footage largely lacks any identifying features
of the area that could verify the FSB’s claims and has not been geolocated. The head of the Russian Volunteer
Corps, which claimed responsibility for the incursion, claimed on March 3 that Ukrainian officials greenlit the
incursion.
The Russian Investigative Committee did not corroborate the Volunteer Corps’ claim, instead
announcing that it has initiated an investigation into the actions of “Ukrainian saboteurs.”
Russian officials and
milbloggers made additional claims accusing Western states of direct involvement in the incursion. The Russian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that the perpetrators used NATO-provided weapons during the incursion
and accused NATO states of being “accomplices” to the operation.
State-run media outlet RT amplified a
milblogger claim that the Russian Volunteer Corps has indirect affiliations with the UK via the Azov Regiment
and accused the UK of involvement.
ISW remains unable to confirm any of the Russian or Russian Volunteer
Corps’ claims about what actually occurred on the ground.
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not address the reported situation in Bryansk Oblast in the
readout of an emergency meeting with the Russian Security Council on March 3. Russian sources
widely claimed that Putin held the meeting to discuss anti-terrorist security measures in response to the Bryansk
