Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2023
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Angela Howard, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros, and
Frederick W. Kagan
March 4, 6:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW
produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map
archive monthly.
Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a
turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut but have not yet forced Ukrainian
forces to withdraw and will likely not be able to encircle the city soon. Russian forces made
one limited confirmed advance near Bakhmut on March 4.
As ISW reported on March 3, Ukrainian
forces are likely setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal out of particularly difficult
sectors of eastern Bakhmut, although it is not clear that Ukrainian commanders have decided to
withdraw at this time.
Russian sources claim that Wagner Group elements have made gains in
northeastern and eastern Bakhmut over the past few days, creating a tactically challenging turning
movement in urban areas in northern Bakhmut.
Ukrainian officials have recently reiterated that
Ukrainian forces still control the situation in Bakhmut but have noted that circumstances are
increasingly complicated and that the Wagner Group has committed its most advanced and prepared
elements to assault operations in the area.
Russian advances in Bakhmut have been slow and gradual and do not suggest that Russian forces will
be able to encircle Bakhmut soon, much less that they will be able to take the city by frontal assaults.
The Russians have, rather, managed to push close enough to critical ground lines of communication
from the northeast to threaten Ukrainian withdrawal routes in a classical envelopment maneuver.
The purpose of a turning movement is to force the enemy to abandon prepared
defensive positions and is different from the aim of an encirclement, which is to trap
and destroy enemy forces. The Russians may have intended to encircle Ukrainian
forces in Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian command has signaled that it will likely withdraw
rather than risk an encirclement. ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces are far more likely to
withdraw than to become encircled and that the Ukrainians might still be able to hold their positions
in Bakhmut if they choose to try. Russian forces have been suffering high casualties in these advances,
and Ukrainian commanders’ assessments of the likelihood that they can force Russian attacks to
culminate near or behind their current positions balanced against the risk of losing access to essential
withdrawal routes will likely guide the Ukrainian decision to stay or pull back.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Eastern Military District (EMD)
Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov in western Donetsk Oblast, likely to
assess the extent of Russian losses around Vuhledar and the possibility of further
offensives in this direction. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published a video on March
4 purporting to show Shoigu visiting Muradov in an unspecified area of western Donetsk Oblast and
claimed that Muradov delivered a report on the current situation and actions of Russian forces in his
