1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, George Barros, and Frederick W.
Kagan
March 2, 8pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic
frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a border incursion in Bryansk Oblast, Russia on March 2 — a
claim that Ukrainian officials denied. Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed that “several dozen”
Ukrainian saboteurs conducted an armed incursion into the villages of Lyubenchane and Sushany on the international
border.[1] The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) doubled down on Bogomaz’s accusation and claimed that the Russian
National Guard (Rosgvardia) conducted an operation to “eliminate” Ukrainian saboteurs who reportedly killed one
individual and took up to six individuals hostage.[2] Russian milbloggers and news aggregators offered differing
information about the number of casualties and hostages, including claims that Ukrainian saboteurs fired on a school
bus.[3] Russian President Vladimir Putin then responded unusually quickly to these claims, alleging that “neo-Nazis and
their owners” carried out a “terrorist attack” against Bryansk Oblast.[4] Putin did not directly name Ukraine as the
perpetrator of the attack in his televised statement, prompting Russian state media to later clarify that Putin meant
”Ukrainian neo-Nazis.”[5] Putin also claimed that Russia will "crush” neo-Nazis that have consistently aimed to deprive
Russia of its history, killed the daughter of Russian nationalist ideolog Alexander Dugin, and ”killed people in Donbas.”[6]
Ukrainian officials denied the Kremlin’s accusations of Ukraine’s involvement in Bryansk Oblast and claimed that Russian
officials might be facing problems with increasing partisan activity in Russia. Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Mykhailo
Podolyak stated that Russian accusations are a deliberate “provocation” aimed at scaring the Russian people into believing
that Russia needs to continue to fight in Ukraine.[7] Representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate
(GUR) Andriy Yusov stated that the incident in Bryansk Oblast is “part of transformative processes in Russia” and pointed
to inter-ethnic, inter-religious, and socio-economic conflicts among Russian citizens in Russia.[8] Yusov also noted that the
March 2 public statements of the Russian Volunteer Corps’, which claimed responsibility for the incursion, further show
that “Russia is beginning to wake up against Putin’s bloody dictatorship.”[9] Yusov likely referred to two videos uploaded
by Russian Volunteer Corps fighters claiming that they crossed the international border into Bryansk Oblast to “liberate”
fellow Russian citizens from Putin’s dictatorship without harming Russian civilians.[10] The Russian Volunteer Corps
claims to be an all-Russian, Ukraine-based armed formation operating under the Ukrainian Armed Forces; however, it is
unclear if the group is affiliated with the Ukrainian military. The head of Dutch open-source investigative group Bellingcat's
far-right monitoring project reported that the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, Denis Kapustin, is a notable far-right
extremist figure.[11] Social media users geolocated one of the two videos showing two servicemen with the Russian
Volunteer Corps flag to Sushany.[12] ISW cannot independently verify Russian, Ukrainian, or Russian Volunteer Corps’
claims at this time, and the two videos each showing two men in uniform holding a flag remains the only concrete evidence
available that anything happened.
The Bryansk incident generated speculation by Russian officials and ultranationalist groups about the
Kremlin’s response to the situation. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on questions
regarding any change of the “special military operation” status to “war” because of the incident.[13] Wagner Group financier
Yevgeny Prigozhin sarcastically observed that Russia had been allowing Ukraine to violate its “red lines” and used the
opportunity to promote Wagner mercenaries.[14] Russian officials such as Crimean occupation head Sergey Aksyonov and
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov along with milbloggers called on the Kremlin to expand security measures and conduct
retaliatory operations.[15] Kadyrov, for example, called on the Kremlin to target civilians to punish the perpetrators of this
incident - effectively calling for Russia to conduct war crimes. Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers and former proxy officials also
called on the Kremlin to designate the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian Volunteer Corps, and Ukrainian armed
organizations as terrorist organizations and compared the incident to the Beslan school siege in North Ossetia in 2004.[16] A
Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that the Russian Volunteer Corps was responsible for the murder of Daria Dugina
and other terrorist activity in Russia.[17] Russian milbloggers also called on the Kremlin to use this incident to form a
Supreme High Command to undertake all political, military, and economic decisions to ensure that Russia wins the
war.[18] Other milbloggers also linked the incident to recent Putin statements that the FSB needs to strengthen border
protection and advocated for more resources for border units.[19] Some milbloggers called on Russia to form assassination
squads to kill Ukrainian officials and form exclusion zones at the border.[20] These responses indicate that the
ultranationalist community is largely dissatisfied with numerous aspects of the Kremlin’s inability to fully commit to its own
