1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023
Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole
Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan
February 25, 7 pm ET
Click here to see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that
falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership and
appears to reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on
unfavorable terms.
1
The Wall Street Journal reported that the exact provisions of the pact are
undecided, but the officials indicated that the pact will provide advanced military equipment, arms, and
ammunition to Ukraine, but not Article V protection or a commitment to station NATO forces in
Ukrainefalling short of Ukraines aspirations for full NATO membership. The officials stated that the
pact aims to provision Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings
Russia to the negotiating table and deter any future Russian aggression. The Wall Street Journal noted
that these officials expressed reservations about the Wests ability to sustain a prolonged war effort, the
high casualty count that Ukraine would sustain in such a prolonged war, and Ukrainian forces ability
to completely recapture long-occupied territories like Crimea, however. The Wall Street Journal
contrasted these officials private reservations with US President Joe Bidens public statements of
supportwhich did not mention peace negotiationsand with Central and Eastern European leaders
concerns that premature peace negotiations would encourage further Russian aggression. Russian
President Vladimir Putin has given no indication that he is willing to compromise on his stated
maximalist goals, which include Ukraines neutrality and demilitarizationas well as de facto regime
change in Kyiv, as ISW has consistently reported.
2
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko plans to meet with Chinese President Xi
Jinping, possibly to assist Russia and China in sanctions evasion amidst reports that
China is seriously considering sending Russia lethal aid. Lukashenko announced plans to visit
China from February 28 to March 2 and to meet with Xi Jinping likely to sign agreements on trade,
investment, large-scale joint projects, and other matters.
3
Lukashenko also plans to meet with top
Chinese officials and the heads of Chinese corporations.
4
Lukashenkos announcement of his planned
visit coincides with reporting from CNN and The Washington Post that senior US officials assess that
China is seriously considering selling combat drones, personal weapons, and 122mm and 152mm
artillery shells to Russia.
5
Russian and Chinese officials have also reportedly developed plans for the
shipment of drones to Russia under falsified shipping documents to avoid international sanctions
measures.
6
China may seek to use agreements with Belarus to obfuscate violations of sanctions.
US President Joe Biden rejected Chinas 12-point peace plan as Russian sources continue
to capitalize on the announcement of the plan to vilify the West and Ukraine. Biden stated
that the Chinese peace plan is only beneficial for Russia and that it would make no sense for China to
participate in negotiations on the war in Ukraine.
7
Donetsk Peoples Republic (DNR) head Denis
Pushilin argued that Chinas peace plan is a fundamentally different approach to the war in Ukraine
from the Wests as the West demands the fulfillment of preconditions while exacerbating the conflict
through supporting Ukraine.
8
Pushilin nevertheless also rejected the Chinese plan because it would
