Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023
Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird,
George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
February 24, 7:00pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of
Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has failed to achieve any of its stated
objectives and has not made significant territorial gains since July 2022. Russian President
Vladimir Putin and his administration made no statements relating to the anniversary even though
Putin has made numerous public appearances over the past three days.
Deputy Chairman of the
Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev made inflammatory claims that Russia will win the war and
reiterated that it is vital for Russia to achieve its goals to "push back the borders that threaten [Russia]
as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland."
ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin
has been using Medvedev to sustain information campaigns targeting Western military support for
Ukraine and to deflect attention from Russia's military failures.
Medvedev's statements highlight the
fact that the Kremlin is continuing to pursue its unrealistic maximalist goals even though it has no
meaningful successes to offer the Russian people after a year of costly war in Ukraine.
Select Russian milbloggers commented on the Kremlin's silence on the first anniversary of the war.
Russian former officer and an avid Kremlin critic Igor Girkin criticized Medvedev's statements as
delusional and lamented the fact that no one remembers the severe losses Russian airborne troops
suffered during the fight for Hostomel Airfield near Kyiv on February 24, 2022.
Girkin claimed that he
had long been forecasting that Russia had embarked upon a protracted and exhausting war. He noted
that it is very difficult to defeat a state that receives external support using Russia's unmotivated forces,
absent civil society, and strong brainwashing.
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger attempted to downplay
Russia's military failures expressing thanks that the war revealed shortcomings but distress at the high
price paid in Russian blood.
The milblogger also amplified the Kremlin's false narrative that the war
was necessary to stop supposed Ukrainian "aggression" in Donbas. The milblogger's statements closely
mirror comments made by unnamed Kremlin-affiliated officials to Financial Times who noted that
Putin will try to frame Russia's catastrophic military failures as a necessary learning experience that
Russia will use to prepare for future supposed NATO aggression against Russia that Putin purportedly
fears.
A Russian source capitalized on China's release of a 12-point peace plan to inaccurately
portray China as supporting Russia's war in Ukraine. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs
released a document on February 24 titled "China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine
Crisis" that called for Ukraine and Russia to respect each other's sovereignty, cease hostilities, resume
peace talks, reduce strategic risks, and cease unilateral sanctions.
Advisor to the Luhansk People's
Republic (LNR) head Rodion Miroshnik falsely asserted that China's peace plan insinuated that
Ukraine and the West are the aggressors, supporting Russia's framing of the war.
China's release of
the vague peace plan is likely in support of an ongoing effort balance between supporting Russia and
retaining access to European markets by portraying China as a disinterested third-party mediator. The
Chinese peace plan is unlikely to be a serious blueprint for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
