Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan
February 22, 9 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is
fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on February 22, a narrative that he had similarly
voiced in his speech before the re-invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Putin gave a
four-minute speech at the rally for the Defenders of the Fatherland Day in Moscow, stating that there
is currently "a battle going on for [Russia's] historical frontiers, for [Russian] people."
Putin had
similarly called territories adjacent to Russia "[Russian] historical land" when announcing Russia's full-
scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Putin did not offer other notable remarks on the progress of the war
or discuss concrete frontline objectives. The concept of Russia's "historical frontiers" could be used to
justify aggression against almost any of Russia's neighbors, as well as Moldova and the Central Asian
states that do not share a border with Russia, since all of them contain territory that belonged at one
point to either the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire or both.
Putin's speech also followed his February 21 decree revoking his May 2012 edict on
Russia's position on Moldovan territorial integrity.
Putin revoked his 2012 orders to the
Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) to firmly uphold the principles of the United Nations Charter—which
require the development of friendly relations between states on the basis of equality, respect for their
sovereignty and territorial integrity—and Russia's commitment to actively seek ways to resolve the
Transnistria issue on the basis of respect for Moldovan territorial integrity. The revocation of the 2012
decree does not indicate that Putin intends to attack Moldova—an undertaking for which he lacks the
military capability—although it does point toward an escalation in his ongoing efforts to undermine the
Moldovan state.
The new decree also canceled the provision of "consistent implementation" of the Strategic Arms
Limitation Treaty (START) with the United States. Putin stated that he signed the decree "in order to
ensure the national interest of the Russian Federation in connection with the profound changes taking
place in international relations."
Ukrainian intelligence officials continue to assess that Russia lacks the combat power
and resources needed to sustain its new offensive operations in Ukraine. Representative of
the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky told the AP that Russian
forces intensified their offensive operations in at least four or five directions in Luhansk, Donetsk, and
Zaporizhia oblasts at the beginning of February but have yet to achieve any significant successes despite
continuing to exhaust their personnel and resources.
Skibitsky added that Russian forces are
concentrating their efforts on capturing Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Marinka, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.
GUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated in an interview with Forbes that the Russian offensive is so
ineffective as to be almost unnoticeable and noted that Russian forces have been rationing shells and
ammunition to sustain assaults on the Bakhmut, Lyman, and Vuhledar directions while conserving
shells in other areas.
Budanov's statement coincides with ISW's assessment that Russian forces are
prioritizing the Bakhmut and Lyman directions and have yet to launch a significant push to advance in
