CRS INSIGHT
U.S. Air Force Pilot Shortage
September 11, 2017 (IN10776)
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Daniel S. Hoadley
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Daniel S. Hoadley, US Air Force Fellow (dhoadley@crs.loc.gov, 7-3512)
In his opening comments to the 2017 U.S. Air Force Posture Hearing
before the Senate Armed Services Committee,
Chairman John McCain stated, "The force is short 1,500 pilots.... This is a full-blown crisis, and if left unresolved, it
will call into question the Air Force's ability to accomplish its mission." According to current Air Force statistics, the
service is 1,947 pilots short of its authorized strength. The shortage is most acute among fighter pilots: the Air Force
predicts it will be 1,055 fighter pilots short of 3,781 authorized by the end of FY2017, following a deficiency of 873 in
FY2016. Commenting on the shortage, the Air Force Chief of Staff, General David Goldfein, warns, "The Air Force is
as busy as we have ever been, but we are also smaller than we have ever been. Consequently, we have less margin for
error when it comes to filling our cockpits."
Analysts point to a number of factors driving the Air Force pilot shortage, chief among them an increase in demand for
commercial airline pilots. Figure 1 illustrates the historical correlation between airline hiring and Air Force pilot
attrition, which creates concern that the shortage will grow given predictions for sustained industry growth.
Figure 1. Major Airline Hires vs. Air Force Pilot Attrition
